Cool Rainy Pattern to Break (May 13-17)

Discussion: The upper-level pattern will dictate NJ weather conditions this week. Below-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies should last through Thursday which should keep temperatures below-average until then. A ridge should then build over the E US for Friday through the weekend with mild/warm temperatures settling in for Friday-forward. The ridge should also help push the jet stream to our N keeping the “stream of rain storms” to the N with it. We should stay wet through Tuesday and then improve Wednesday-forward rain-wise. While showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday it will not be widespread/synoptic like the recent pattern…more of an isolated nature. As of right now the weekend looks great with mild temperatures and dry conditions. So if you can get through the cool wet start to this week there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

Monday (May 13) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (May 14) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start mostly cloudy but improve by evening. More rain is possible primarily for the first half of the day. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (May 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most. Some spots could break 70. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (May 16) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most areas. Skies should be partly sunny with a few isolated thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 17) high temperatures should reach near-70 for many areas possibly mid-to-upper 70s for WCNJ/SWNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates mild conditions (highs in the 70s and 80s) with no synoptic rain systems around. Fingers crossed this forecast holds through this week. Let’s check back in a few days. Otherwise have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™