Cooler Conditions (Nov 27-29)

Discussion: Nothing crazy expected for this weekend. A weak area of high pressure will float through under slightly negative height anomalies. After a very mild Thanksgiving Day and Friday, this will produce a colder Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks colder than Sunday since we’ll have the front-side N flow of the high blowing over NJ. Saturday night looks like the colder night of the weekend. Sunday a little less cold with the high overhead and flow transitioning to S once the high is offshore by Sunday PM. As I stated in Wednesday’s article, the upper levels look pretty wild after this weekend. A very meridional jet pattern that first splits and then merges, well below average height anomalies, and a buttload of cyclonic vorticity. Sunday night through Tuesday morning (mainly Monday), we’re likely going to see periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, possibly some thunderstorms, and a chance for coastal flooding in extreme SNJ/SENJ from stiff S/SE onshore flow. The cold front will then push through by Tuesday morning and usher in a prolonged colder pattern to open December. The first third of December is about as far as I can comfortably see. I expect several synoptic storm systems to develop during this period, which some could be snowy if the timing is right. Let’s let it shake out some more on model guidance and take it day by day.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Nov 27) high temperatures are topping out near-60. Skies are overcast with light NW winds. I expect these general conditions to last through overnight hours as low temps bottom out in the range of mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.

Saturday (Nov 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to sea.  

Sunday (Nov 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

An early look at next week indicates a very unsettled Monday (rain and wind for sure, possibly thunderstorms and coastal flooding). After that we enter a prolonged colder pattern where highs will struggle to escape the 40s and lows will easily fall into the 20s/30s every night. Still seeing an active start to December with a focus on Dec 5-7 for our first widespread potential snow event. We’ll see. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™