Cooler Mixed Conditions Continue

Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates the W US split flow pattern into the E US will remain in-tact for now. This concentrated flow from the N Plains and TX into the Mid-Atlantic US will continue to shape a Great Lakes trough pattern for the foreseeable future. Given that the troughs have been extremely positively tilted, NJ has been stuck under the W/SW flow on the front of the troughs. This has kept us dry and windy with sporadic rain chances. More noticeably, it has kept NJ a few degrees below average since the end of May, outside of a few transient warm (80+) days here and there. This is the pattern that should continue with an expected snap to a warmer pattern after May 16-ish. Like I said, enjoy these conditions because they could be bottled and sold once the warmer season settles in the back half of May. Today is obviously nice. Saturday is the most unsettled day of this weekend with rain and storms likely between about 9/10am and 4/5pm. Sunday looks much better and milder with temps likely pushing 70+ statewide.

Forecast

Friday (May 8) high temperatures are heading towards the mid-to-upper 60s by late-afternoon. Whether areas near Philadelphia take a run at 70 is yet TBD but today has a cooler more pleasant feel due to low humidity and breeze. Not good for fire risk. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a few temporary sun blockers here and there. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range, from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts, as a few more clouds move in.

Saturday (May 9) high temperatures should reach the 60-65 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms around. Looks like it moves in by 10am Saturday morning and clears out between afternoon and early evening hours. Saturday 5pm-forward might be ok. Winds should be light for most of NJ out of the S/SW, perhaps a little breezier along the SNJ/ECNJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall and hover in the upper-40s/lower-50s for most NJ locations.  

Sunday (May 10) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Localized CNJ and SNJ locations might take a run at 80 away from the ocean but should at least push into the 75-80 range. The day seems to start with more sun than clouds and end with more clouds than sun. Can’t rule out a passing isolated spring shower but most of the day looks generally good and milder than Saturday. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-55 range for most NJ locations with more passing showers possible.

An early look at next week (May 11-15) indicates the below average temperatures/above average rain pattern continuing. Monday-Thursday looks like highs ranging 58-65 NNJ to SNJ. Friday looks like the mildest day of the week with the best chance to reach 70 of the week. Monday, Wednesday and Thursday have the best chances for rain. Please keep fire safety/risk in mind as we head through more dry and breezy days here and there over the next few weeks. Although a pattern of more rain is developing, it will take time for water tables and aquifers to catch up. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC