Cooler Start. Unsettled Finish.

Jonathan Carr
By May 23, 2022 11:18

Cooler Start. Unsettled Finish.

Discussion: We’ll be under ridging for most of this week. A little cooler earlier in the week with the onshore flow associated with high pressure to our N. That high will then move offshore and help bring a warm front through from SW to NE around Thursday morning. You could see shower and thunderstorms along that warm front in the morning. But for the rest of Thursday and into Friday morning, you’ll be in the warm sector (higher humidity, warmer temps, S/SW winds). The Friday cold front should then clear the warm sector into the ocean and we hopefully start a string of high pressure domination through the rest of the holiday weekend. The wildcard I’m following is the timing of when the last of the rain will move out…will that be more of a Friday thing? Or will it bleed over into Saturday.

Monday (May 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most. Some relief after the last few days of heat. Skies could start cloudy but improve by afternoon. SNJ should hang onto the clouds longer than NNJ and CNJ. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-50s for most.

Tuesday (May 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a very pleasant feel. We can thank the ocean for the cooler marine air mass as winds will be light-to-breezy out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most.

Wednesday (May 25) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with overall setup favoring clouds. Winds will still be light-to-breezy off the ocean. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NWNJ to SENJ.

Thursday (May 26) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most, maybe 80s for typical warmer locations (interior CNJ/SNJ). Skies should be mixed. AM showers and Thunderstorms are possible before wind kicks up from the S/SW by afternoon. More PM/overnight showers and thunderstorms are then possible as lows hover in the 60s into Friday morning.  

Friday (May 27) looks unsettled with the focus on a cold front pushing rain and thunderstorms through NJ from W to E. We’ll have to get a but closer for better timing. But expect humid S/SW winds ahead of the cold front, a good chance of rain/storms along the cold front, and drier NW flow behind the cold front. That general transition should occur on the PM side of the day.

An early look at Memorial Day Weekend indicates deent conditions for Saturday through Monday after the Friday cold front pushes through. I plan to do a long holiday weekend outlook this Wednesday or Thursday which should have better deetz on the Friday cold front timing. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By May 23, 2022 11:18