Dry and Colder (Feb 28-Mar 1)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 28, 2020 10:54

Dry and Colder (Feb 28-Mar 1)

Discussion: The 250mb jets (Polar and Pacific) are converging to the SW of NJ and keeping the overall jet pattern S of NJ this weekend. The jet should rise back over and N of NJ by Tuesday followed by a short dip for Thursday-Friday before returning N of NJ for next weekend. This should correlate with an E US upper level trough this weekend, ridging Tuesday-Wednesday, a transient trough for Thursday-Friday and then ridging for next weekend. At the surface this means a dry and colder Friday-Saturday followed by a dry and milder Sunday-Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain mild but with zonal warm front precipitation (lighter and scattered). A cold front passage is then expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This front could feature heavier rain and possibly some rumbles. A colder Thursday-Friday would then ensue with the transient trough overhead. We then moderate milder for next weekend as the ridging returns. Some model guidance is suggesting a quick moving northern disturbance for Friday. It would most likely be rainy but there’s a small chance of wintry precip mixing in, mainly for northern areas. Even if that happened the surface temperature profile looks warm during daytime hours and marginal overnight so stickage would be unlikely.  

Friday (Feb 28) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Feb 29) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Mar 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to upper-30s.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions for Monday through at least Wednesday with some lighter scattered rain likely. Heavier rain is then possible Wednesday night along a frontal passage that should cool the region down for Thursday and Friday. None of the precipitation is currently modeled as wintry and we’ll likely warm up again for next weekend.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 28, 2020 10:54