Dry and Unseasonably Mild

Discussion: A Happy Halloween to those who celebrate! The most notable feature to dominate New Jersey’s weather pattern is the developing ridge. I’m seeing above-average geopotential height anomalies through Nov 12. And while it’s a little outside of my comfort zone of forecasting range, only a transient (couple of days) cool down is expected to occur before mild temperatures reload with more E US ridging. So with that said, we’re looking at above-average temperature anomalies for the lower-levels and surface for most of the first half of November. That means temps in the upper-60s even 70s during the day with only cool nights (not cold nights). As far as tonight goes, we have a weak upper-level disturbance plowing into the ridge so I think that will zap a lot of energy out of it…producing only isolated-to-scattered showers this evening/overnight/tomorrow morning. I would be surprised to see anything stronger than that either wind or storm wise. Initial rain this evening (Monday – Halloween) looks to target the I-95 region of CNJ first (between about 6-9pm). Then all of NJ is on the hook for rain after 9pm through about noon tomorrow (Tuesday). The rest of the week then looks dry as mild temperatures build into the weekend. As of right now the weekend looks great and more like something you would see in April-May. It seems a little awkward for November but we’ve seen stranger.

Monday (Oct 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas, maybe mid-to-upper 60s for some warmer SNJ locations. Skies have started with ample sun but will transition to cloudy as we head into evening. I know a lot of trick-or-treaters are concerned about rain tonight. Isolated showers are possible any time after 6pm (mainly for CNJ/95 areas) and then a more scattered/widespread rainfall is then likely after 9pm. All hit-or-miss type stuff so best of luck to everyone! I wish I could say that all trick-or-treating will be dry. But I can’t. Winds are light out of the S and should remain that way. Overnight lows should hover in the 50s statewide as more periods of rain likely move through.

Tuesday (Nov 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. More rain is possible, especially for morning-noon hours, mainly for SNJ. All of NJ should see improvement starting afternoon and forward. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Nov 2) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most areas give or take a few degrees. Skies should be mostly sunny (a few friendly clouds) with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Nov 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E, maybe E/NE. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Nov 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Some spots may break 70 (interior CNJ/SNJ). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds as the pleasant feel daytime theme continues. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 50 statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates above average temperatures (into the 70s for most) with dry conditions. Unseasonably mild for November and that seems to be the trend for possibly the first half of November.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™