Dry, Sunny, and Pleasant

Discussion: The term above-average temperatures hasn’t been seen in a while. Thanks to a late-March/early-April Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE), we’re still feeling the downstream tropospheric propagation in the form of a sustainable below-average temperature pattern. This overall cold spill from the N pole to the mid-latitude regions is represented by the ongoing negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). To add insult to injury, the E US is in a trough pattern due to high-latitude blocking over Greenland…a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is what has been herniating the jet stream to the S of NJ and locking in the below-average temperatures. While we do see transient (1-2 day) periods of warm in the warm sector of each passing system, we ultimately suffer the lasting trough influence behind each cold front. So that’s what’s been happening. Moving forward, the AO and NAO are expected to shift back to at least neutral, maybe slightly positive, by mid-May. With a few week delay of downstream propagation, NJ should finally get back to average or warmer temps in the second half of May. The first half should remain below average but only slight, not major. Average high temperatures for the next few weeks or so are upper-60s to near-70. NJ will likely see temps in the mid-60s but not so much 50s anymore. Therefore, even a “cold for this time of year” day will still feel pleasant. And we should see more days that do reach 70. For this weekend, it’s the start of 60+ every day and conditions look dry and clear. The dry and breezy precursors create a forest fire hazard so please use your head! Severe thunderstorm outbreak potential should remain in-check until the pattern breaks warmer and more humid (likely second half of May). May, as a whole, could end up entirely cooler than average even with the last hald-to-third expected to be average or higher. But again, cool in May is still pleasant enough for most outdoor stuff vs cool in April which is still too cold. I’m right there with ya with opinions on this prolonged colder pattern. It needs to end. The good news is it starts to end tomorrow (Friday) and should completely end in mid-May.

Friday (April 29) high temperatures should reach near or just above 60 for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. A solid recipe for forest fire so please use your head. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (April 30) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see interior CNJ/SNJ take a run at 70. This all of course, after a cold AM start. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should relax some but remain out of the NW. Forest fire hazard remains. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas. Elevations could dip back into the upper-30s while coastal regions hang closer to 50.

Sunday (May 1) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s again with interior CNJ/SNJ the best chance to approach/reach 70. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and a few clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same. A few degrees below average but still nice (mostly 60s or better). A little rain on Monday then Wednesday looks like the warmest day (near-70) however also the cloudiest and most unsettled. The days of temps maxing in the 50s are all but over outside of marine influence for the immediate coast. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™