Erin Grazes Jersey. Summer Slips Away.

Discussion: This will likely be the last update focused on Hurricane Erin. The rain is donezo and will continue to pull away from the coast overnight. All that is left from Erin are rough surf, dangerous rip currents and a bit more coastal flooding this evening/tonight. Most of NJ is now enjoying a refreshing breeze out of the N. Coastal areas, however, might have an hour or two more of cloudy mist but again, that’s now well on its way out.  

I consulted with a friend and local area expert, Chris Huch of the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve and Stockton College Marine Sciences, about the remaining coastal flooding impacts this evening. There is one final high tide of concern to get through tonight. To summarize his thoughts, there are two coastal flooding swell forces involved. First is the NE winds wrapping around the cyclonic center of Erin into the Jersey coast. Second is the radiating ground swell pushing into the Jersey coast from the SE or E/SE. It’s difficult to pinpoint coastal flooding stages with multiple forces involved. The first high tide today was run-of-mill minor stage coastal flooding. Tonight’s second high tide is expected to reach just into moderate stage coastal flooding, maybe only just minor, with a small chance of higher-end moderate stage coastal flooding (less likely). According to Chris, the NE wind swell has overperformed and the ground swell has underperformed. If this holds into tonight’s second high tide for today, then we are likely looking at a less intense flooding scenario. If the ground swell picks up, then we’re looking at more of a moderate coastal flooding scneario. I saw a lot of street water videos today from the first high tide however, according to Chris, the wind has just turned to due N and waves are underperforming according to forecasts (better for coastal flooding concerns). My gut feel aligns with Chris’s take in that this evening’s coastal flooding could cap out in the “minor category” rather than “moderate.”

Rip currents will remain very dangerous to swim in. I recommend just staying out of the ocean until later this weekend. I know surfers will not listen to this and believe me I get it. Waves are going to be big. But yes still very dangerous to swim along the Jersey beaches especially for inexperienced swimmers. Beach erosion will be assessed on Saturday/Sunday when the last of the rip currents, coastal flooding and large wave sets have subsided. Other than that, Erin is a wrap with refreshing weather conditions moving in behind.

Friday and Saturday look amazing with lower dew points and lots of sunshine. High temps will still rise into the upper-70s/lower-80s but the lower dew points (sub-60 even sub-50 possible) will make it feel amazing. I’m seeing a little bit of humidity spike back into mid-60 dews Sunday-Monday with thunderstorms possible but that seems very transient with low dews and clear skies returning for much of next week starting Monday night. Summer already began slipping away with last week’s frontal passage. Erin might have put the final stake in.

I can’t promise there won’t be a short-lived heat wave in September or even October when temps rise into the 90s. But for the near-term, which closes out summer as most students know it – through Labor Day, hot summer days are toast.

In English: Erin is now pulling away from the Jersey shore after grazing it with rough surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, clouds, rain and beach erosion…literally every secondary impact you can think of from a grazing hurricane. We are very lucky that the two southern ridges and northern jet set up the way they did. Otherwise, this could have been disastrous for NJ and much of the E US coast. One final high tide of concern to get through this evening with moderate stage coastal flooding on the table (likely just minor). Otherwise, it’s best to stay out of the ocean until at least Saturday due to remnant rip currents and rough surf gradually subsiding through Friday and some of Saturday morning. Humidity should bottom our for a beautiful Friday and Saturday with lots of sun. Humidity and thunderstorm chances should then be around for later Sunday into Monday but then we quickly return to refreshing and comfortable dry weather conditions Monday through next week. Hot and humid summer days are likely gone through Labor Day. You can never take a few 90+ days off the table for Sept and even Oct lately. I’ll continue to monitor the tropics through the rest of hurricane season. Glad Erin was mostly a miss. Have a great rest of your Thursday. I’ll have a weekend outlook posted tomorrow. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC