Fall Start & Wintry Finish this Week (Nov 10-14)

Expect a few mild days of sunny weather to start the week (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will then move through and noticeably drop temperatures heading into the weekend. I’d say we’re looking at 10 degrees below average starting on Thursday and as much as 15 degrees below average next week. Some precipitation is possible surrounding each day of the frontal passage but nothing disruptive. I’m much more interested in the Sunday-Tuesday period for snow than this Thursday. Let’s look at each day:

Monday should be mostly sunny with highs in the lower 60s. Winds should be light out of the SW before overnight lows fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s.

Tuesday should have variable clouds with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Just a small chance of light rain showers. Winds should remain light but more out of the S than SW. Overnight lows then drop into the lower-50s.

Wednesday should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds as winds change to the NW (5-15mph). Temperatures will still reach the 60s but it should feel drier and cooler. Overnight lows then plunge into the lower 30s as the cold front passes through.

Thursday will feel noticeably colder as high temperatures top out in the 40s with 15-20mph gusts out of the NW. Overnight lows should drop to just below freezing. With strong NW flow over the great lakes, lake effect precipitation is very possible (rain, sleet and/or snow). We saw some of this reach the coast this past Friday. Also a weak low pressure disturbance could add in additional moisture. We will have to monitor the radar for such. Disruptive accumulations are not expected at this time but you all know how people get with snow in the air. Please be careful!

Friday should be even colder with highs just getting into the 40s and more gusty NW winds. There will be plenty of sunshine before lows drop into the 20s statewide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see NWNJ in the teens early Saturday morning. Again, snow showers are possible with strong NW flow over the lakes and weak low pressure offshore (nothing crazy)

I’m closely monitoring the Sunday-Tuesday period (November 16-18) for wintry precipitation. As it stands right now, a low pressure system wants to throw some Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean moisture into the mid-Atlantic where cold air will be in place. As always, NWNJ has a much better chance of this than SENJ given the interior + elevation advantage of less oceanic influence. I’ll post more about it as I follow this week.

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I took this photo near the Delaware Bay. Be safe and have a great week! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™