Fall Weather Holds Serve

Discussion: The upper-level pattern this week features a trough centered just to our E (ULL over Maine/SE Canada) and a steep ridge just to our W in NC US/SC Canada. This will keep the upper-level flow out of the NW and W/NW for NJ. At the lower levels we’ll have high pressure just to our W providing cool northerly flow straight through Saturday. A rain/storm-producing disturbance should first move through Tuesday leaving Wednesday through Saturday clear, dry, and cool. Sunday could see a rainy disturbance but I’m not 100% sold on it yet. If a few dynamics go the other way, Sunday could end up like most of this week. I should have a much better idea about Sunday by Thursday. The tropics are going through more letters than Pat Sajak in the 90s but none are currently a threat to NJ. If something tropical realistically threatens NJ, I’ll let you know immediately.

Tuesday (Sept 28) high temperatures should range from mid-70s to near-80 N to S. Skies should be mixed with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing during afternoon hours. Winds should be light out of the W in general but obviously windier under a localized downpour or storm. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as conditions improve by sunrise.

Wednesday (Sept 29) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 60s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to break 70. Skies should be mostly sunny with comfortable, dare I say chilly, feel. It should feel very fallish. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas. Immediate ECNJ/SENJcoastal regions could hang in the 50s due to marine influence. Oh yeah, it’s coming. Not a bad time to change the filter of your HVAC if you have it. I foresee a lot of heaters kicking on Wednesday night.

Thursday (Sept 30) high temperatures should again, struggle to escape the 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny with maybe a few friendly clouds. Winds should remain light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from N to S. NNJ elevations could actually flirt with a frost.

Friday (Oct 1) high temperatures should again, struggle to escape the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates the great conditions lasting through at least Saturday. Sunday could possibly be unsettled. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™