Feb 13: Tracking More Snow

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 13, 2019 21:28

Feb 13: Tracking More Snow

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Discussion: There are three snow signals between this Saturday and mid next week. The first is this Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. Currently the guidance points towards something similar to what happened this past Sunday night/Monday morning in SNJ. There’s still variance for who would see the highest amount in SNJ (S of I-195) but NNJ is looking the least likely to see snow from this first system. At this point it looks light but possibly disruptive and plowable for the jackpot zone. This system should track across the US from W to E as a digging shortwave in the upper-levels. The energy moves off the Pacific over California tomorrow. This should allow for quality increase in data sampling for tomorrow’s 12Z model suite. At the surface a weak wave of low pressure (1000mb+) should track with the shortwave near S Delmarva and ring out some moisture across SNJ. A separate low should track from the Great Lakes to SE Canada on Friday. The back-side flow of the Friday low should pull cold air down to meet Saturday’s wave. I’ll be watching this one closely tonight and tomorrow for any trends. It was showing two days ago, trended weaker yesterday but came back today on most guidance. Precipitation should end for this first system by early Sunday AM.

The second signal is late Sunday night into Monday morning. This currently looks like the weakest signal and might end up just passing showers across NJ in general with a snow/rain line splitting NJ somewhere between CNJ and SNJ. The GFS is showing trace/light accumulations. The Euro has flurries at best. The upper-levels look unfavorable for this one but there’s time to see how the first system will affect the setup for the second. We should have a much better idea on this second signal by Friday morning but again…it looks light and weak.

The third signal is for a stronger low in the middle of next week. It is way too far away for anything specific. A verbatim model regurgitation would be another snow to ice to rain situation (like yesterday) with a building upper-level ridge over the E US. This will likely change as models adjust and hone in through the long-to-mid range forecasting period. It’s just a winter storm signal for now that has been showing for a while now. Serious tracking of this third possible system wouldn’t begin until later this weekend and only if there’s still data supporting it.

In English:  Snow is becoming favorable for SNJ this Saturday afternoon through early Sunday AM. Accumulations look light but possibly disruptive and plowable S of I-195. Another chance for snow exists statewide Sunday night into Monday morning but it looks like even weaker sauce. A third chance for wintry precipitation exists in the middle of next week but we’re a bit too far away for specifics. Just a general signal that I’ll expand on this weekend if still showing. Nothing major is on the horizon at this point unless the third system builds plays out big. I’ll be tracking. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great rest of your Wednesday night and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 13, 2019 21:28