First Shot of Winter Cold Arrives

Discussion: I’m seeing mostly an upper level (250mb) converging split flow pattern for the E US this week. At 500mb, most data suggests a trough to start this week that yields to a ridge for this weekend and then back to a trough next week. At the surface this means the coldest air we’ve felt yet this fall for tonight (Monday) night through Wednesday followed by a period of moderation for the weekend, then back to cold next week. A very active pattern is in place. Yesterday’s system has cleared out. Lake effect snow is possible Tuesday. Another rain system Friday into Saturday then Sunday into Monday and possibly Monday into Tuesday. While there is a lot of activity, most of it looks too warm for wintry precipitation outside of the lake effect stuff possible on Tuesday. Actual lake effect streamers will need to be nowcasted on Tuesday regarding orientation and specific locations across NNJ. And typically, NNJ is favored over SNJ. Such lake effect activity rarely throws down anything more than trace/light accumulations. Visibility is usually the hazard for such with sometimes gusty winds if it’s a squall. Showers and squalls can dump a quick coating-to-an-inch or so in a very short amount of time and that can be as blinding as a blizzard if you get into it. I’m curious how the radar looks tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Folks, we have a long winter ahead of us, which hasn’t even begun yet meteorologically. Not seeing any larger snowstorms (with wintry accumulations) as far as I can comfortably see (out to maybe Dec 7) but it is nice to mention the snow possibility for tomorrow, even if just the lighter lake effect kind.

Monday (Nov 27) high temperatures have mostly maxed in the 45-50 range, a few locations just over 50. Skies are mixed and winds are light out of the W/NW. A much colder turn starting tonight (Monday) and you should really start to feel it through sunset this evening.  Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most locations with SENJ coastal areas just over 30.

Tuesday (Nov 28) high temperatures should only reach the mid-to-upper 30s for most areas. Our first day of this upcoming cold season where temps fail to break into 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW making it feel even colder. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to upper-20s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with most areas away from the ocean closer to 20. Skies should be mixed with lake-effect snow flurries/showers possible. Might be the first flakes for many outside of NNJ elevations. Winds should remain breezy overnight. It will get colder later this winter but this should be the coldest day/night so far this fall. Let’s call it a wintry-like taste of temperatures.

Wednesday (Nov 29) high temperatures should again max in the mid-to-upper 30s for most areas. Maybe coastal areas just over 40. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should relax to just light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back to the upper-teens (elevations) and 20s away from the ocean and maybe just above freezing along coastal regions.

Thursday (Nov 30) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas, give or take a few degrees. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Dec 1) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Rain should end sometime between midnight and sunrise Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend indicates milder conditions after this week’s cold. Once the rain clears out by early Saturday AM, Saturday and most of Sunday look ok. Rain could return by Sunday night into Monday with possibly another trailing disturbance for Monday-Tuesday. An active pattern through next week but nothing with a wintry outcome showing just yet.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™