First Snowflakes of the Season for Many

Forecast Discussion: I had a feeling this was likely today, as mentioned in yesterday’s weekly outlook. The coldest air of the season yet is blowing across the southern Great Lakes, picking up moisture via evaporation, and carrying it E/SE to NJ (out of the W/NW). We call these lake effect streamers.

The stuff that has pushed in so far has favored parts of CNJ and SNJ. However, the more intense streamers are still expected for later this afternoon and likely more of a NNJ/CNJ target. It’s nothing crazy folks. It’s what we call conversational snow. While some of you could stack a quick “coating-to-an inch” it won’t be much more than that. The biggest safety hazard from these types of streamers is visibility, especially if they squall. However, we’re not really dealing with a front-edge Arctic frontal system which typically creates squalls. In this case the streamers are parallel to the flow not perpendicular like a front, so less of a chance for squall. However, snowfall could still become temporarily heavy which arrives at the possible visibility hazard in a very localized manner in swaths from W to E.

This should all relax with late-afternoon loss of sunlight (diurnal inhibition). Winds should relax to. We’ll probably have the coldest night of this cold snap tonight due to clearer skies and light winds = recipe for radiational cooling. Then we trickle up for a milder weekend.

In English: Some people saw flurries this morning. More people could see flurrier flurries this afternoon. Trace-to-light accumulations are possible where it flurries the hardest but this is mostly just conversational snow and the first flakes of the season for many (outside of NNJ elevations). For snow lovers who have only seen sunlight today, I feel your pain. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™