Florida in New Jersey (July 2-7)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 2, 2019 12:29

Florida in New Jersey (July 2-7)

Discussion: The pattern seems pretty locked this week. If you are familiar with Florida weather then you should have a good idea what to expect. Basically every day will reach summery-warm temperatures (at least 80s everywhere 90s away from the ocean). Most of each day should be partly-to-mostly sunny however diurnal instability could build instances of isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms during afternoon/early evening hours. Overall humidity should be elevated. The drivers of this pattern consist of the Bermuda high setting up along with a train of weak disturbances colliding into the Bermuda highs return flow—right over the Mid-Atlantic US. While this doesn’t render a complete washout on any given day it certainly opens the door for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms every day through the rest of this weekend and weekend. High pressure should clear some of this out late-Saturday night into Sunday morning. This might render Sunday as the best feeling day of this forecast period. A weak coastal disturbance is then showing for Sunday PM into Monday. Model guidance, earlier this week, had this impacting NJ. Today’s data has the high holding this to the SE of NJ. I will keep an eye on it should it decide to track closer in reality.

Tuesday (July 2) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. 90+ is possible away from the ocean. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms possible during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (July 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. 90+ is possible away from the ocean especially for WCNJ/SWNJ. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms around during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms around during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (July 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms around during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (July 6 + 7) indicates more of the same for Saturday…highs in the 80s (maybe 90 inland), partly-to-mostly sunny skies most of the time, routine summer elevated humidity, PM showers and thunderstorms, etc. Sunday could be the nicest day of the stretch as high pressure pushes the stormy humid area to the SE of NJ (out to sea). We would still be warm and sunny but with slightly reduced humidity and light northerly winds. Hopefully the coastal disturbance that could impact NJ Sunday PM into Monday is also held out to sea. I’ll be keeping an eye on this and will update if needed. Have a great holiday stretch and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 2, 2019 12:29