From Stormy to Beautiful

Discussion: It’s been some roller coaster of temperatures the last month or so. I’ve seen record low high temps (ex: afternoon high only reaches 58) and record high temps (afternoon high reaches 98) occur in the last few weeks and very close together. It’s certainly going to be a challenge to get a handle on any synoptic pattern given the developing Super El Nino. With that said, we can at least look at the next 7 days with some confidence. An Omega Block will set up across the US in the form of an upper low over the NW US, a ridge over the Northern Central US spanning up into Canada and an upper low over the NE US. This naturally displays the jet stream coming into California, rising up into Canada, then back down into the E US and departing the E US near the Mid-Atlantic. That jet stream shape creates the Omega symbol and means we’ll be placed under a cooler flow later this week. But first, we are still building heat and humidity under a weak ridge preceding the Omega configuration. Today was warmer and tomorrow (Wednesday) will likely be the warmest day of the week with the highest humidity. This should spark rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday with some possibly reaching severe criteria. These storms should break the heat and humidity and return us to a cooler feel (subject to the Omega block-forced back-side troughing) that will exist over the NE US into this weekend. While the Omega block will produce below-average temperatures for the end of this week into this weekend, that’s still temperatures in the lower-70s rather than upper-70s…meaning it will not be cold during the day it will feel amazing with abundant sunshine. As far as rain goes, I am only seeing whatever falls this evening (Tuesday evening) in the form of passing showers and then the rain and storms on Wednesday. The rest of the week looks drier with less humidity (Thurs-Sun) as high temperatures tick downwards into the lower-70s each day. Next week it looks like we finally welcome a near-average temperature pattern by the end of next week where highs continuously break 80.

Forecast

Tuesday (May 26) high temperatures should max out just over 80 along the general I-95/NJTP corridor. 75-80 elsewhere but slightly below 70 along the immediate coast. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds with a few showers around. Winds should remain light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 for most areas as showers remain around.

Wednesday (May 27) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most NJ locations, and in some cases close to 90 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should push into the mid-70s. Skies should be mixed with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible and some could reach severe criteria for wind speed and/or hail. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ as storm chances continue but subside into Thursday morning. Most Thunderstorms should occur between afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday (May 28) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most NJ locations, near-80 along the corridor. Skis should be mixed with more sun than clouds and less humidity (the Wednesday storms break the heat and humidity). Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations.

Friday (May 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations, a few spots well away from the ocean just over 80. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-60 range for most NJ locations.

An early look at the weekend (May 30-31) indicates highs in the low-to-mid 70s, lows in the upper-40s/lower-50s and generally dry conditions. Below average temperatures for this time of year? Yes. But that means room temperature pleasant conditions rather than “just warm and muggy enough to need AC.” Let’s revisit in a few days on the weekend outlook. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC