Gorgeous Fall Conditions

Discussion: At this point, I’m gaining confidence that Melissa will stay out to sea next week once she exits the Caribbean to the N into the Atlantic Ocean. However, Melissa could have a slight upper-level interaction with the system that IS expected to pass over the Mid-Atlantic US mid-next-week. Models are still all over the place, but the Euro has been the most consistent with rain that falls in the ~Wed-Thurs window but clears out in time for Halloween trick-or-treating hours. I’m still expecting an aggressive trough/upper low to set up over the E US next week, spawning a surface low on the front of it. The track of the surface low is very uncertain as some model runs take it inland a bit while others pop it off the Jersey coast as a coastal storm (not a nor’easter). In either case, I think we’re looking at some kind of rainy/windy period within the Tues-Thurs window that hopefully clears out by Friday for the little/young ones. The Canadian has been consistently rogue in suggesting a later rainy period that bleeds into Halloween. We’re going to need the model data guidance to evolve over the weekend so we can begin tracking seriously on Monday with more consensus. But for this weekend, you can’t ask for better fall conditions (if you like fall weather). We are rain-free today (Friday) through at least Sunday, likely Monday, with highs in the 55-60 range and lows in the 30s/40s away from the ocean (45-50 near the ocean). Winds should remain light and gradually rock from W/NW to NW to N from now until Sunday. While not 100% blue sky, any clouds that form will be of friendly type and really give off the feel of a fall sky. That includes more vivid colors (less pastel) around sunrise and sunset times. Much of NJ is either near peak or peak foliage color. It all adds up to a gorgeous fall weekend for outdoor activities day and night. Just make sure to dress warm enough.

Forecast

Friday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach or fall just short of 60 for most NJ locations. NNJ elevations might max closer to 55. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for much of NJ with coastal areas hanging in the 40s. NNJ elevations could flirt with a freeze while much of NJ likely sees a frost.

Saturday (Oct 25) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range again. Skies should be mixed again with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 35-40 range for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the 40s.  

Sunday (Oct 26) high temperatures should likely max in the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Not as sunny as Friday and Saturday but still a beautiful and pleasant fall day. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from 35-48 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Oct 27-31) indicates highs in the 50s for most of the week. Monday looks like another beautiful fall day. Tuesday into Halloween is complicated pending the storm tracks of Melissa (stays offshore but can have steering influence on land system) and the possible coastal storm (land system that moves out into ocean off NJ). Monday will begin serious tracking of such. I am starting to lean towards rain and wind sometime within the Tues-Thurs period that clears for Halloween but it’s still too soon to commit. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC