Gorgeous Week Ends Wet and Windy

Discussion: Nothing that interesting in the upper levels. Just a handoff of slightly higher and lower heights in mostly a zonal setup. The upper jet should become more meridional as we closer approach the weekend. At the lower levels, an area of high pressure will dominate the next few days with gorgeous weather conditions (for September). Around Friday (Sept 22), the high pressure should slip to the E (over the Atlantic ocean) and allow a low to run northward up the coast in the high’s western return flow. This low could become a tropical cyclone before landfall somewhere in coastal SC/NC late Friday night or Saturday morning. It might stay unorganized and fail to form a tropical cyclone. In either case, it wants to push N afterwards into NJ for Saturday-Sunday which would mean rain, onshore wind, and coastal flooding issues. SENJ would be favored over NWNJ for rain and wind but as of right now the entire state is on the hook for at least rain. I will revisit this tomorrow.

Tuesday (Sept 19) high temperatures are maxing in the low-to-mid 70s. Skies are mostly sunny with a pleasant (low-humidity) feel. A taste of fall to come. Winds will remain light to breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should remain out of the W/NW but lighter than Tuesday was. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should continue the mostly sunny with a pleasant feel theme. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Sept 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s again. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should pick up our of the E (off the ocean)…lighter away from the ocean, breezy right along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates a possible washout from a rain system. With many outdoor interests, my own included, I am watching this closely and will report accordingly. Should have a much better idea on timing and more detailed impacts tomorrow evening (Wednesday). Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™