Gorgeous Weekend after Today’s Storms

Jonathan Carr
By June 2, 2022 14:17

Gorgeous Weekend after Today’s Storms

Discussion: The weekend looks spectacular for outdoor interests. But first we need to get through tonight’s thunderstorms. A low is expected to form in the extreme W MD/WV area soon. This low should then track over Delmarva and into the Atlantic between this afternoon and evening. The low itself should act as a lifting trigger to produce the storms. Therefore, these are not the kinds of thunderstorms that weaken with loss of solar heating (sun setting). The more probable outcome is a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushing a wall of severe thunderstorms through the Mid-Atlantic US this evening from NW to SE. We’re talking about frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty (possibly damaging) winds. NWNJ is just starting to see the storm front. If you’re following on radar, this is the storm front that will make its way from NWNJ now to eventually SENJ later this evening as the energy generally pushes through from W to E. This is the kind of system that goes on to produce a Derecho but in this case I don’t think there’s enough runway for that to happen before the system exits into the Atlantic Ocean. I do, however, think that a well-consolidated linear severe storm front will impact SNJ/SENJ/Delmarva/E VA later this evening just before pushing out to sea. So please keep your guard up through about 8-9pm tonight. These storms will push from where they are now to the SENJ coast between now and then. That means they will probably cross over the 95/NJTP corridor around 5-6pm. Conditions should then gradually clear out from late-tonight through tomorrow morning as we welcome a dome of high pressure to control the weekend (plenty of sun, dry, and pleasant humidity levels). The only enemy Friday-Sunday will be super high UV levels so please protect your skin! Next week we return to a warm but unsettled pattern. I’m watching the kick-off to the 2022 tropics season down near the Yucatan Peninsula. The first named storm (Alex) could form soon with impacts to S FL Friday-Saturday. As of right now it looks like S FL starts to see rain and wind Friday with the center of the storm crossing FL Saturday. After that it should steam away to the E/NE, SE of OBX with no impacts to NJ aside from maybe a day or two of enhanced rip currents, if that.  

Friday (June 3) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s, maybe near-80. Skies should start cloudy but gradually improve by late-morning. A dry and pleasant afternoon-evening expected. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (June 4) high temperatures should reach near-80 with low humidity. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (June 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a continued pleasant feel to end to the weekend. Winds should be light in any direction away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas will likely see a light E flow. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates upper-70s/lower-80s with some humidity and typical showers/thunderstorms here and there. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By June 2, 2022 14:17