Great Conditions Continue (Aug 26-30)

Discussion: The upper-jet remains to our N in Canada. It seems to be breaking into short-term split flow patterns here and there but overall 250-500mb flow seems flat and zonal out of the W. Surface high pressure positioning has produced periods of onshore flow like today and tomorrow. The thing is the ocean is very warm so we don’t get the “chill down” or “warm up” effect of marine influence…only the refreshing feel of it. Flow should transition from onshore to southerly by mid-week. This should keep us warmer this week but not too hot or unbearable. Monday-Tuesday look comfortable before a warmer Wednesday-Friday. Not seeing any widespread rain systems just a few isolated PM pop-ups after daytime heating. Next weekend should be more of the same with another cold front bringing lower humidity again. NNJ would experience lower humidity than SNJ. Aside from the drier frontal passages bringing comfortable late-summer conditions there’s a bit to talk about in the tropics. Invest 98L is the closer of the two systems to NJ. It has mostly remained a tropical wave and will now re-curve into the westerlies with altitude—missing SE US/E US impacts aside from coastal rip currents (from OBX to Long Island). Tropical Storm Dorian has formed to the E of the Caribbean. It should enter the E Caribbean Sea and fizzle out after encountering shear while in the sea and then later elevations of Hispaniola. After that it should re-curve along the same path as Invest 98L. While neither of these tropical disturbances pose a threat to NJ the tropics are heating up as we close out the month of August.  

Monday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a pleasant feel. SENJ should experience slightly higher humidity levels than the rest of NJ. Winds should be light out of the E/NE for most but breezier closer to the shore. I wouldn’t be surprised to see winds gust to 30mph along the immediate ENJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should dip into the 55-60 range for most of the state while immediate coastal areas hang closer to 70. NWNJ elevations likely down to near-50.

Tuesday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy as humidity works its way in from SNJ to NNJ. NNJ should stay the most pleasant for the longest. CNJ and SNJ can’t rule out isolated showers but most of the day looks rain-free. Winds should be light out of the E—slightly breezier for immediate coastal areas. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Aug 28) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could take a run at the mid-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms around during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Aug 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny and humid. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s as the cold front moves through.

Friday (Aug 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with bearable humidity. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates more warm and clear conditions. This time of year NNJ/NWNJ can behave very differently than SNJ/SENJ regarding humidity. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Otherwise have a great week and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™