Great Conditions (Sept 28-29)

Discussion: Another upper-level ridge will begin building over the E US this weekend which should last through at least Thursday morning. This should produce several days of well above-average temperatures at the surface. One of those days is this Saturday. The other days likely Tuesday-Thursday with peak warmth and humidity on Wednesday. This Sunday-Monday will feature more of a pleasant feel due to a surface high directing flow out of the N and slightly off the ocean. So warm and slightly humid Saturday, warm and dry Sunday-Monday, warm and humid Tuesday-Thursday. Aside from some light showers riding a dry cold front late Saturday night/Sunday AM the weekend looks mostly dry. Then we should get smacked with sustained fall conditions starting Thursday night/Friday morning. My advice is to enjoy the last likely warmer stretch of weather for the year. Yes it will be above-average but it won’t be horrible. Evenings will still feel great. Columbus Day Weekend looks downright cold with cooler conditions dominating the pattern for at least the first half of October. The dry pattern continues as more and more areas approach drought status. We’re not there yet but certainly drying up. Karen is done with and Lorenzo will sleep with the fish so no tropical threats to the E US at this time.

Saturday (Sept 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. The highest temps will be felt in interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with some humidity. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ with a small chance of rain.

Sunday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best chance to reach the lower-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a pleasant feel. Any overnight rain should end by mid-morning. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows could dip into the 40s for NNJ elevations. The rest of the state should generally fall into the 50s.

An early look at next week indicates the nicer-feeling Sunday weather spilling over into most of Monday. Tuesday through Thursday should feature well above-average temperatures with some humidity (but not relentless humidity). Thursday night-forward is basically when sustained fall conditions should begin. Columbus Day Weekend looks chilly, even cold, especially during overnight hours. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™