Great for Travel

Jonathan Carr
By November 22, 2021 11:17

Great for Travel

Discussion: Some solid upper-level trough features should push through the E US over the next week or so. Most of it looks cold and clear with just two frontal systems moving through. The first one is just clearing through this morning and the second should be Thursday night into Friday. This is mostly due to a broad area of high pressure currently moving in. The high pressure should sit overhead from this evening through Thursday evening allowing optimal weather conditions for holiday travel. Thanksgiving Thursday actually looks like the mildest day of the week, likely the only day to push into the 50s. Most other days should be capped in the 40s. This weekend should start cold and clear (after the Thursday-Friday front). Long-range model guidance is still trying to sniff something out in the Nov 29-Dec 1 period IMO. There’s nothing currently showing at the surface but the upper-level configuration and general transition from -NAO to +NAO have me curious. Let’s give it a few more days to iron out with fresh data before forecasting anything of certainty. Other than that, the second week of December also has a storm signal based mostly on global oscillation for now. I’m nowhere near any level of confidence for this period but not afraid to point out the data suggesting something wintry happening (Euro Ensembles/Phase 7 MJO/east-based Nino). A warmer period is also showing up from about Dec 4-9 (between the two wintry signals). It’s still very early for snow talk but we’re definitely getting started soon.

Monday (Nov 22) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should start cloudy/rainy but improve by afternoon. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W. Temperatures should then fall during evening hours as overnight lows eventually bottom out in the 20s for most areas. Coastal areas of ECNJ/SENJ could hang near-freezing.

Tuesday (Nov 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, sometimes gusty, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 N to S.

Wednesday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny with light W/NW winds (great for holiday-related travel). Overnight lows should range from 20s to 30s from N to S.

Thanksgiving Thursday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Great weather conditions for the holiday especially parades. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s as rain moves through into Friday morning.

Friday (Nov 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s and likely earlier in the day. Morning clouds/rain should give way to clearing skies as temperatures drop. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 20s for most areas with coastal regions hanging near-freezing.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s for most. The first half of the weekend looks clear but I’m still watching a synoptic storm signal for the end of the weekend into the start of the following week (Nov 29-Dec 1). I’ll report more as we closer approach. For now, it’s just a 7-day signal to monitor.

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Jonathan Carr
By November 22, 2021 11:17