Great Start. Becoming Unsettled.

Discussion: The upper levels indicate a temporary break in the cooler pattern this week as a surface low and upper low/trough wraps up N of the Great Lakes—eventually yanking a warm sector northward over the Mid-Atlantic US. We’ll remain pleasant feeling despite the warmer temperatures due to lower humidity through at least Wednesday. On Thursday we should start feeling the humidity increase with the S warm sector flow becoming more established. I see two potential frontal rainmakers possible, one late Thursday night into Friday morning and another Saturday night into Sunday morning. The fronts look drier on the S/E sides (for NJ) and wetter on the N/W sides. So, I expect NWNJ to see more rain from the frontal passages than SENJ. But in either case, I don’t see any hazardous flash flooding scenarios, more so just routine frontal rain systems that dissipate as they approach the coast. These frontal systems will be attached to some of the lows I mentioned in the Tale of Several Lows article I put out last week. The pattern should then return to below average Sunday (Sept 7)-forward as cooler and drier air are pulled down behind the Sunday morning frontal passage/SE Canadian low. Sept 8-15ish looks to stay that way…nice during the day (70s) and chilly at night (45-55) with little rainfall. Back to this week, expect each day to be warmer and more humid than the previous day until we peak Thurs PM-Sat AM (best chance for showers/thunderstorms). The tropics remain quiet for NJ this week but by next week we could be tracking another Cape Verde origin storm.

Forecast

Tuesday (Sept 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 48-58 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Sept 3) high temperatures should reach the 75-83 range. Most of NJ should stay in the 75-80 range but areas closest to the I-95/NJTP corridor have the best chance to exceed 80. Still a pleasant feel considering the lower humidity. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Sept 4) high temperatures should reach the 78-85 range. Skies should start mixed with sun and clouds. Rain, possibly even thunderstorms, could move in by evening along with increasing humidity. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 with more rain and possibly thunderstorms into Friday.

Friday (Sept 5) high temperatures should reach the 82-88 range. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds, and showers with a humid feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range under cloudy and humid skies with isolated showers around.

An early look at the weekend (Sept 6-7) indicates the warmer and humid unsettled conditions lasting into Saturday followed by a cooler and drier Sunday after a Saturday night-Sunday morning cold front. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC