Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

Jonathan Carr
By August 2, 2021 12:52

Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

Discussion: New Jersey will be under an upper-level (250mb) jet streak for most of this week. The jet will be out of the SW or S/SW from the E side of a decaying trough (centered over TN/KY). High pressure will be keeping most of the region clear and nice at the surface for at least Monday-Tuesday, possibly some of Wednesday. Wednesday PM through Friday however could see some influence from offshore energy flirting with the upper-level jet streak. Depending on this interactivity and influence, the offshore energy will either form rain just off the SENJ coast or rain will form over NJ land. I’ll be tracking the evolution of guidance on this for the next several days. But yeah, Monday-Wed AM looks amazing. Wed PM-Friday looks unsettled with a wide range of possibilities (from isolated showers to more of a soaking rain). The weekend then looks warmer, more humid, and naturally unsettled like most summer days.

Monday (Aug 2) high temperatures are maxing out in the upper-70s/lower-80s with a pleasant feel. Skies are mostly clear and winds are light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 50s to 60s from elevations to coasts. A beautiful day!

Tuesday (Aug 3) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be very light in any direction. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Aug 4) high temperatures should again reach near-80 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an afternoon/evening isolated showers especially closer to the ocean (ECNJ/SENJ). Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Aug 5) high temperatures should again reach near-80 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms possible, especially SE of the I-95/NJTP corridor (SENJ favored). Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Aug 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with breaking 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms possible. Will all depend on coastal energy proximity to NJ. Winds should be light out of the W/SW which will re-introduce elevated humidity. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates run-of-mill summer conditions. Highs in the 80s with humidity. Days mostly sunny/clear but with isolate, maybe scattered, afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Overall and in general, it looks like warmer/hotter conditions will follow this weekend. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By August 2, 2021 12:52