Hang in there Jersey (Aug 19-23)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 18, 2019 20:33

Hang in there Jersey (Aug 19-23)

Discussion: The upper-jet should hold to the N of NJ through about Thursday. This will allow 500mb geopotential heights to ridge across the Mid-Atlantic US and keep us warm, humid and unsettled. Temps shouldn’t be unbearable or record-breaking but the humidity should speak loudest this week. Therefore NJ should remain tropical-feeling and unsettled meaning showers and thunderstorms possible every day despite lots of sunshine. An upper-level low should then establish in SE Canada and cool down/dry out the entire region from Thursday night through at least Monday via high pressure at the surface under NW flow aloft. Currently the cold front is estimated for late Thursday night/early Friday morning. The tropics remain inactive but my gut feel says it will wake by the end of August/start of September. The Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures warmer than it’s ever been. Once Saharan air mass relaxes and tropical forcing returns I feel it’s going to be showtime especially with relaxed Caribbean shear. I can’t say if anything is going to strike NJ just that the Atlantic hurricane basin overall should wake up for September. I’ll be watching.

Monday (Aug 19) high temperatures should break into the 90s for many locations. Coastal areas might hang in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be sunny and humid for most of the day with PM showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Aug 20) high temperatures should again reach 90 for many locations with coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Skies should be partly sunny and humid for most of the day with PM showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Aug 21) high temperatures should again reach 90 for many locations with coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Skies should be partly sunny and humid for most of the day with PM showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Aug 22) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to flirt with 90. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Aug 23) high temperatures should struggle to break 80 statewide. Skies should be partly sunny with noticeably reduced humidity (pleasant). Winds should remain light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.  

An early look at the weekend indicates clear and pleasant weather lasting through the weekend. Basically if you can hang in there through Thursday relief from the heat and humidity is coming for the weekend. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 18, 2019 20:33