Heat Wave Begins

Discussion: When the sun sets like that, you know it will be hot the next day. And that’s what I expect some of the sunsets to look like this week. Between now and this weekend, the upper jet is going to raise far N of NJ, creating a ridge for the E US. The ridge should start out today over Tennessee and make it over the OBX area by Sunday (very slow-moving W to E). As the upper jet rises (ridge builds), it vacuums northward hot and humid Gulf air mass from the S. We’re now in a situation where the highest sun angle of the year showers hot and humid air mass with solar radiation, hence the hazy, hot and humid setup for this week. The temps look to break by Sunday/Monday. But from Wednesday through Saturday, expect relentless heat and humidity. So that’s the temperature idea for this week. Now let’s talk thunderstorms. We can likely assume a cold front later in the weekend which could feature it’s own linear stormfront. From now until then, we can assume that sea breeze fronts or possibly some orographic influence off the Appalachian Mountains could locally break capping inversions and cascade outwards via outflow boundaries. This is why I have the caveat listed for isolated showers/thunderstorms below on every day. We do however, have some potential for more of an outbreak scenario via what’s known as a ring of fire pattern. Because we’ll be on the NW side of ridge circulation, this means there will be a highway of upper-level steering currents from the Great Lakes to NJ at times. The exact ridge positioning will determine if this highway points more towards NJ or more towards New England. Regardless, strong complexes of storms like to organize and ride these highways. The 2012 Derecho was one of these. From about Tuesday night through Saturday, we will possibly be in this position. Since such storm complexes can ride from the Great Lakes to NJ in as little as 6 hours, we’ll have to pay attention to any that do form. I imagine at least us or New England will see such an occurrence later this week. Otherwise, just expect typical hottest conditions of the year in NJ this Wed-Sat with all the humidity and storm potential that typically follows with it.

HEAT SAFETY STATEMENT: We understand that people have to work outside. Therefore, we’re not asking you to stay inside and jeopardize your job. But we are asking you to stay as cool and hydrated as your situation possibly allows. Know the difference between heat stroke and heat exhaustion. Heat and humidity conditions this Wed-Sat will not be kind to dehydration and/or exerting yourself beyond what you feel is comfortable.  

Forecast

Monday (June 29) high temperatures are just shy of 90 currently (345pm) but could touch 90 in a few spots near the Philly-Trenton area. Otherwise, the rest of NJ has likely maxed out in the 80s with some immediate coastal areas hanging in the mid-to-upper 70s. Dew points are in the 60s which means increased humidity but not horrible. Skies will remain mostly clear as E/NE winds lighten. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-65 range for most of NJ.

Tuesday (June 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most NJ locations. Immediate coastal regions should max in the lower-80s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should only fall to about 70 with an uncomfortably feeling breeze.

Wednesday (July 1) high temperatures should push into the mid-to-upper 90s for most NJ locations. Whether or not 100 is touched/broken matters not to the general idea of safety. Heat indices will be over 100 and in some cases over 105. Please see above heat safety statement. Closer to the coast will be less hot but still up there with many immediate coastal areas expected to reach at least 90. Skies should be uncomfortably humid, hazy but mostly clear. However, with such a temperature profile/environment, common sense would be to allow for isolated afternoon-early evening pop-up showers and/or thunderstorms. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should only fall to about the 72-76 range (near the dew point temperatures) which means thick air.

Thursday (July 2) high temperatures should reach or slightly exceed 100 for an actual temperature which likely means heat indices of 110 or greater. See the above heat safety statement. The immediate coast should exceed 90. Again, hazy, hot and humid skies mostly clear except for isolated afternoon-early evening pop-ups. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 70s and in many cases, the 75-80 range.

Friday (July 3) high temperatures should again reach 100 or greater for many locations, especially closer to the Philadelphia-Trenton area. Coasties into the lower-90s again. Same caveat for safety and isolated thunderstorms. With such a storm-fuel environment, you have to leave chance on table but most of the day should be uneventful outside of the heat and humidity. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall back to the mid-70s.

An early look at the weekend (June 4-5) indicates another scorcher for Saturday, July 4 (near-100) and a step down for Sunday (but still lower 90s). Saturday into Monday could be stormy in general as we transition to just highs in the 85-90 range for the following week. So there’s at least a weak cold front/stormfront likely somewhere in that window. Will report accordingly and at least have a full holiday weekend outlook posted Wednesday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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