Hot Stormy Start then Improvement.

Jonathan Carr
By August 12, 2021 15:03

Hot Stormy Start then Improvement.

Weekend Discussion: This weekend overall is straightforward. We’re warm-sectored until a cold front moves through and then we’re beautiful under high pressure behind the cold front. What is extremely uncertain is the timing of the cold front. There is disagreement on model guidance and therefore more data is needed to settle on whether Saturday daytime hours are going to be gorgeous or rainy/stormy. Friday is easy…hazy, hot, and humid during the day and stormy at night. Sunday is also easy…pleasant behind the cold front and under a dome of high pressure. Saturday however goes either way depending on the cold front timing. GFS has it out of here by sunrise Saturday. The Euro and NAM is bringing it through during afternoon hours. Again, the difference ultimately will determine of Saturday is nice or not nice. I plan to update tomorrow after another 24 hours of data review.

Tropics: The tropics are heating up. Fred should track along the W FL coast from S to N this weekend and go right into the SE US early next week. Its remnants will be held away to the SW by the developing high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic US however the convergence zone could be enhanced by remnants to keep us a little stormy next week. Then we now have Invest 95L expected to graze the N/NW side of the Caribbean Sea and head towards the SE US later next week. The guidance right now does not suggest a NJ hit, rather a general spray anywhere from FL to Bermuda. I’ll be watching this evolve and will have a much better idea once closer to the Bahamas region.

Friday (Aug 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 90s for most areas. 100 is not off the table especially for interior CNJ/SNJ. Even the ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas should flirt with 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and hazy clouds with a very humid feel. The NWS has excessive heat warnings distributed for a reason. Stay as hydrated and cool as your situation allows for. Any storms that form would be extremely isolated but worth mentioning as a small wildcard possibility considering the environment. Otherwise, most storm activity should be scattered overnight with the cold front and possibly severe. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay in the 70s statewide.

Saturday (Aug 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Should feel cooler after the heat wave. Skies should be mixed and unsettled rain and thunderstorms possible despite an overall improving environment. More analysis is needed and I’ll update tomorrow. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (Aug 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Maybe interior CNJ/SNJ reaches low-80s. Regardless, significant improvement in humidity and feel. Should be very pleasant for most of NJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. SENJ could hang a little cloudier and more humid. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s with elevated humidity and thunderstorms possible almost every day. No direct impacts from Fred however remnants could contribute to the stormy environment. Just watching Invest 95L for now. Let’s take another look on Sunday. For now, stay cool, hydrated, and safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By August 12, 2021 15:03