Humid and Unsettled Conditions Expected

Discussion: This weekend, we’ll be on the front side of two troughs missing a phase. This will result in SW flow at multiple layers, primarily aloft. Surface flow will be more S or SE. This is a recipe for very unsettled conditions as we’ll have solar-driven instability and adequate wind sheer to hoist this ridiculous moist surface layer (storm fuel) up into the atmosphere for condensation and return. We’ll also have a weak unorganized area of low pressure nearby on Sunday as an additional lifting mechanism. Saturday looks the lesser stormy of the weekend as most precipitation/storms are only convergence-dependent (between offshore low and developing SE US low). Sunday looks like the more stormy day with more of a synoptic-wide/frontal-driven occurrence. But overall, an unsettled weekend with Sunday stormier than Saturday but both days on the hook for rain and storms.

Friday (July 7) high temperatures are maxing in the 82-88 range in general. A few spots just over 90 with elevated humidity. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds with thunderstorms pushing across the state from W to E during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should remain light out of the SE (unless under/near a thunderstorm) as overnight lows dip to near-70 statewide.

Saturday (July 8) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Skies should be mixed with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the SE (unless under/near a thunderstorm). Overnight lows should fall back to near-70 statewide.

Sunday (July 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. It should be semi-frontal meaning a thinner (shorter time) period of the heaviest rain and storms. But other periods of rain are possible surrounding the unorganized front. Will have to see radar for proper indication of rain/storm duration. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the E/SE (unless under/near a thunderstorm). Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures back up into the upper-80s/90s with the general mixed bag of summery weather (mostly sunny days, afternoon/evening storms, elevated humidity, clearing warm nighttime skies). Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™