Humid Stormy Pattern Sustains

Discussion: What I’m seeing in the upper levels is the jet stream remaining to the N of NJ this entire week with positive geopotential height anomalies locked in. Not a defined ridge because the pattern is rather zonal. But this upper level configuration will support the hot and humid airmass remaining over NJ. So no break/relief from the humidity outside of a small window early Tuesday AM. Today (Monday) should be the stormiest day of the week in terms of a widespread expectation of showers and thunderstorms. Every day after this week carries the chance for just isolated-to-scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms…in more of a typical summer day manner. So for this article discussion, I will focus on today’s storms. You can already see the action over PA heading towards NJ. There might be a few isolated cells out ahead of the main stormfront, however the main event should approach NWNJ by 5pm and clear SENJ by about midnight tonight…a very slow-moving stormfront powered by a cold front behind it. The main stormfront should bring downpours, winds and frequent lightning through NJ within this timeframe. Since the sun will be setting during this time (main source of storm energy), storms are expected to weaken by the time they reach the SENJ coast around midnight. They could come in pretty hot and heavy for NWNJ/WNJ however around 5-6pm when diurnal instability is still ripping. I see adequate shear to support the storms as well as the lifting trigger of the front itself. So like in most NJ cases, these storms should hit NWNJ/WNJ harder than ECNJ/SNJ. With that said, NWNJ/WNJ has the better chance for severe criteria but all areas should expect at least a rainy breezy situation with rumbles. I’ll be following and posting radar obs. Once the stormfront is through, a cold front will follow. Last week I mentioned that I was suspicious of how far the cold front will make it. Looks like it will indeed stall either right along or just offshore to the SE of NJ. This should give parts of NJ a few-hour period of relief during early Tuesday morning hours. The boundary should then return northward motion for Tuesday as a warm front and quickly bring NJ back into the relentless humid feel and that should hold for the rest of the week. The hottest days of the week seem like Thursday-Friday but should also be the least stormy (not stormless) thanks to a possible capping inversion around 650-700mb. In summary, the typical summery (lol) pattern should continue this week: Hot, humid, lots of sun during the day but afternoon/evening storm chances and muggy mid-summer nights.

Forecast

Monday (July 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds to start. Humidity should remain elevated. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, are possible later today (Monday). See above discussion for details but most NJ areas should expect the possibility of downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning with areas NW of I-95/NJTP favored over areas SE of such. Winds, away from any thunderstorms, should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide as showers and storms persist into early Tuesday morning but likely extinguished by sunrise.

Tuesday (July 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations with a very humid feel. After any early AM leftover action clears by sunrise, skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible for afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 70-75 range NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (July 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations with a very humid feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds, feature a very humid feel, and possibly produce isolated showers and thunderstorms by afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide and in some cases above 75…eww.

Thursday (July 17) high temperatures should break 90 for many NJ locations and if not, easily into the 85-90 range. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with relentless humidity making it feel hotter. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Only an isolated chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day (afternoon/evening). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should again stay above 70 statewide and above 75 for some. Maybe NWNJ elevations dip into upper-60s.

Friday (July 18) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range for most NJ locations with a humid feel. Skies should start sunny but increase in cloud coverage to more clouds than sun. Downpours and thunderstorms are possible later in the day (afternoon/evening). Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 65-75 from NWNJ elevations to SWNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (July 19-20) indicates more of the same. Highs in the 85-90 range, mostly sunny days, afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, very humid, and overnight lows in the 65-75 range NNJ to SNJ. I’ll be covering the storms as they approach and hit but focus is first on this afternoon/tonight (Monday). Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers ad-free content, inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At two bucks per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC