Icy Start then Improvement but Windy

Discussion: This morning featured some much-needed rainfall for the region. A temperature inversion inhibited the stronger winds from reaching the surface for some. Others saw some good gusts just ahead of the main convective squall that sparked a few severe thunderstorm warnings. We are currently (as of 215pm) in a lull between two cold fronts. The second cold front should come through by sunset and drop the temps down to just below freezing statewide by 7pm. Temps should then continue to fall into the 20s for most with the exception of coasties hanging closer to 30. Watch out for black ice if you are traveling tonight/tomorrow morning. Winds should pick up for all areas behind the second cold front (out of the W/NW) and help evaporate/dry most roadways. But anything still wet will freeze so please use some extra caution. We then have a rather mundane weekend as the thermal gradient boundary drifts back to the NE a little over NJ. Expect near to slightly above average temps before we plunge again Sunday night into Monday morning behind another cold front that will push the gradient back to the SW. I’m watching for a disturbance to bring snow showers to the region on Tuesday Dec 23 but it doesn’t look like a snowstorm and surface temps will be marginal, especially once the sun is up high. Any stickage would have to occur earlier in the morning when it’s still cold enough and that might only be for NNJ/parts of CNJ. Then seeing one more transient warmth period Dec 24-26 before we plunge back colder for the last few days of the year. The upper jet should remain aligned across S Canada from W to E then falling down over the E Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. This should be the status quo until a pattern-changing event is expected right before the New Year. Dec 29-31 is another wintry signal associated with the pattern-changer, but I’d like to get through this weekend before any serious consideration.

Forecast

Friday (Dec 19) high temperatures were reached early in the day with a range of 53-60 (synoptic-driven). The rain came through overnight and a series of squalls are now moving through (as of Friday afternoon) with a series of cold fronts. Temperatures are expected to rapidly drop to just below freezing shortly after sundown. Cannot rule out a few flurries/show showers later this afternoon/evening. Winds should eventually pick up behind the last cold front out of the W/NW and become breezy/gusty into Saturday morning. Overnight lows should bottom out in the 24-30 range NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Dec 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s for most NJ locations, maybe just over 40 in some SNJ spots. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should start breezy out of the W and relax gradually throughout the day. Overnight lows should fall back to around freezing for most areas with coastal areas hanging a bit higher in the mid-to-upper 30s.

Sunday (Dec 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to mid-20s NNJ to SNJ as another cold front pushes through.

An early look at next week (Dec 22-26) indicates a cold start to the week with high temperatures gradually building up as the week progresses. The Dec 24-26 period looks to be a milder spike in temps before another cold front knocks temperatures back down for the last days of 2025. The only wintry signal I am watching for now are some snow showers Tuesday Dec 23 towards the morning when it’s still cold enough. Surface temperatures will likely prevent stickage for most of NJ though. There’s another potential wintry signal in the Dec 29-31 range but let’s get closer. Other than that a few waves will be coming through in the last general week of 2025 featuring rain. Let’s take a fresh look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC