Improved but Mixed Conditions

Discussion: This weekend will be milder, in general, than what we’ve gotten used to this week. A weak disturbance will push through this late-afternoon/evening (Friday) from NW to SE and clear out completely by 3am Saturday morning. Behind that weak system will be some weak ridging that will allow NJ to stay on that milder side through Sunday. Then at some point Sunday evening, more rain will push through with another disturbance into Monday morning. Can’t rule out a wintry element to it for extreme NNJ elevations…either a mix of snow but likely with little-to-no accumulation. That will then set up a cooler, but not cold, next week until the next batch of rain moves in next Friday. These next 10 days or so represents the 9^th inning of the baseball game. Now that we can see this period more confidently, it doesn’t look snowy. Whatever falls wintry Sunday night into Monday morning for extreme NNJ only might be it for the snow season. The snow season has likely ended for everyone S of I-80 and possibly everyone SE of I-287. Thunderstorm season will begin soon and ramp-up by the end of April. I do have to say, the pattern does look wet to close out March and head into April. Much needed rainfall in the form of an active pattern of weaker synoptic rain systems every 3-5 days or so.

Forecast

Friday (March 20) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-to-upper 60s along the I-95/NJTP corridor between about New Brunswick and the Delaware Memorial Bridge (interior CNJ/SNJ). ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas are chillier in the upper-40s/lower-50s and most elevations/NNJ are in the 55-63 range. A much-welcomed feel! Skies should transition from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy as rain pushes through this evening into overnight. Rain should approach NWNJ by 4-5pm and SENJ by 7-8pm. Rain should clear NWNJ by midnight, SENJ by 3am. Winds should remain light to breezy out of the SW, breeziest along the coast. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-45 range NNJ-SNJ.

Saturday (March 21) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range for NNJ elevations and SNJ coastal areas. More of a 60-65 situation away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Rain should end very early in the morning (by 3am for all areas). The rest of Saturday looks improved and mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations.

Sunday (March 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Can’t rule out a run up to 70+ away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. NNJ should be cloudier than SNJ with NNJ having the best chance for a few afternoon showers. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range with showers possible through Monday morning.

An early look at next week (March 23-27) indicates a return back to near-average/slightly-below average temperatures. That means highs ranging 48-55 NNJ-SNJ and overnight lows staying mostly above-freezing in the 33-40 range. A few nights might dip just below freezing, especially elevations and SNJ pine barrens. Friday looks like the only possibly rainy day of the week.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC