Improving Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By September 16, 2021 14:43

Improving Conditions

Discussion: Invest 96L is currently sitting between the US and Bermuda at Georgia latitude. Whether or not it organizes into a named system is another story. But for today and tomorrow, it will impact the Jersey shore with higher surf and enhanced rip currents. It will not pass close enough to bring NJ into a rain and wind storm but it will likely provide some light E/NE flow and light rain/mist/fog at times. A coastal storm just far enough away for impact but close enough for nuisance. This would be for tonight through early Saturday AM. Behind the departing disturbance will be N/NW flow but tapping a warm and humid air source (to our N/NW in the ridge). That should make Saturday drier but humid and possibly cloudy (low level clouds). Sunday looks much more pleasant with northerly flow locked in at all layers and a cooler/fresher air mass tap. Next week the ridge then hands off to a trough for a ~Thursday frontal passage. This would set up at least a fallish feel for next Friday into next weekend. Invest 95L is currently approaching the W Caribbean as a Cape Verde origin tropical wave. I’m much more curious about this system as it looks to take a close pass to the N Lesser Antilles. We’re way too far out for US implications but I wouldn’t want to see the E US under a ridge when it approaches. The next two hurricane names, depending on Invests 95L and 96L naming order, would be Odette and Peter.

Friday (Sept 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with AM fog possible. The sun might make its way out a few times. Otherwise expect on-and-off light rain showers/mist at times with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the E/NE, perhaps breezier along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas.

Saturday (Sept 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with some sun and mostly clouds. Humidity should linger. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Sept 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a more pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for much of NJ except areas along the immediate coast (60s).

An early look at next week indicates highs in the upper-70s for most days with slightly less (not zero) humidity. Overnight lows down into 50s for most (60s for coastal regions). Most days look sunny and clear. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By September 16, 2021 14:43