Into the Arctic We Go

Discussion: Nothing has changed with respect to the upper level look this week. If you look at 250mb wind analysis, you’ll see a well-carved trough swinging through the E US with a solid jet streak in the Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) zone on the lower-front side of the trough. If you look at 500mb geopotential heights, you’ll see a 528dam upper low digging as far S as the TN/NC border with the 540dam line making it as far S as Atlanta, GA<->Charlston, SC latitude. Is this highly anomalous for early November? Yes, it is. Will it produce cold temperatures that we’ve never seen before? Hardly. Time of year/climatology are going to prevent E US temperatures from dipping into anything considered “dangerously cold.”  It’s just going to be cold for this time of year when highs normally reach the mid-to-upper 50s and lows normally bottom-out in the 30s/40s. NW winds will make it feel even colder so I do expect wind chills to drop the real feel into the teens/20s during the coldest point of the night and maybe the 20s/30s during Tuesday daytime. So, definitely plan to dress for a very cold feel.

What makes this trough extremely cold for this time of year is a lobe of the Polar Vortex (PV) breaking off/spilling down into/injecting the trough with Arctic air. So yes, into the Arctic we go. But again, this time of year prevents even Arctic air from dropping NJ temps to say “highs in the teens/20s lows in the single digits.”

Highs across NJ ran in the 48-53 range today (Monday), not much higher than this morning’s overnight low. That’s what happens when a cold front pushes through right before the sun warms the surface during daytime hours. Things are going to catch up with each other though with this evening’s sunset. Once the sun is down, I expect a solid drop of temperatures with all of NJ, less the immediate coast, eventually making it below freezing by early Tuesday AM. Tuesday’s highs should then struggle to push above 40 for much of NJ with coastal areas maybe making it into the low-to-mid 40s. Tuesday night/early Wednesday AM then looks like another cold night just below freezing for most of NJ. We then rebound towards highs and lows considered more seasonably average, maybe just below average, for the rest of the week/weekend. It might be a while before we see highs break 60 outside of those freak few days that are always possible throughout winter with the right SE US/Atlantic ridge setup.

Enough about the colder temperatures, let’s talk about precipitation. I mentioned the PVA zone above in the first paragraph because that zone is known to feature stretching and separation forces in the upper levels (divergence and difluence). This creates a void of low pressure in the upper levels that must be filled with rising air from the surface. And as rising air from the surface pulls air inwards from its surroundings, it does so cyclonically due to Coriolis force. This is why surface lows form under and are powered by that PVA zone on the fronts of troughs. As I said earlier this week, the W US ridge axis is a little too positively tilted which translates to a less-than-ideal trough for an east coast snowstorm. There will be a surface low but it will be out in the ocean. NJ won’t see a precipitation shield from this surface low but the low itself will help rip the colder aloft Arctic-source air over the warmer still-liquid Great Lakes towards NJ, hence the lake effect snow machine. And that lake effect snow could be enhanced slightly by the near-proximity low. This ultimately means flurries/light snow is possible for NJ anytime between late-tonight (Monday night) and early Wednesday morning with Tuesday being the most probable day. Accumulations are not likely, outside of NWNJ elevations (low probability but non-zero), but it would be the first conversational flakes of the colder season and flurries could possibly make it down as far as 95 possibly lower. No guarantees.

We’re then dry through at least Saturday (Nov 15) with a few disturbances lined up for Sunday into the following week under a seasonably average temperature profile (likely too warm for snow). But after that, it’s fair game for snow tracking season.

In English: Temperatures should drop after sundown this evening (Monday). Expect a cold Monday night through all of Tuesday and into Wednesday morning…anomalous cold for early November but not for mid-winter. Expect wind chills from cold N/NW winds to make it feel even colder. I wouldn’t be surprised to see wind chills down into the teens/20s at the coldest point Tuesday. Heaters will run and jackets will be pulled from storage as we fall into an Arctic-source airmass tonight through Wednesday morning. Again, it’s nothing we haven’t seen before in the colder months of winter. It’s just very cold for early November. The highest elevations of NWNJ could see some very light snowfall with flurries possibly making it down to the turnpike or so. Tuesday would be the best day for that. No reason to head out for milk, eggs and bread though. We’re likely looking at conversational flakes if any. The highest elevations of NWNJ would have the best chance for just light accumulation if any. We then rebound to a more normal temperature profile Wednesday daytime into the weekend. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC