I’ve Seen Better Weekends (July 28-30)

Here’s what to expect this weekend…

Discussion: Not much has changed since yesterday’s article analysis. We still have an upper level low moving through the Mid-Atlantic US over the next 72 hours. We also however have an upper level low moving through the 50/50 SE Canadian region (lat/long). The W side of this 50/50 low will feature northerly flow from the W side of cyclonic rotation. This could possibly be our saving grace for keeping the heaviest rainfall in SNJ and possibly pushing the upper-level low further S as well. A hat tip to Meteorologist Mike DeFino for pointing this out today. My gut tells me this coastal storm will rip from about 5PM Friday through late Saturday morning with remnants tapering off by Saturday evening. We should however dry out Saturday evening into Sunday. Some models this earlier morning were showing light rain through Monday but they have since backed off. It is therefore possible that rain could wrap up as early as late Saturday morning or as late as Saturday evening. I know this has tremendous impact on Saturday outdoor plans but I’m not afraid to admit the uncertainty. With that said, the weekend starts wet and windy before ending dry and cool. 

Friday (July 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy during the day with a few initial showers around towards afternoon. Rain, wind and possibly embedded thunderstorms should move in during early evening hours and persist through the overnight. SNJ is favored for the heaviest rain. NNJ is favored for the lightest rain. CNJ could go either way but I’d lean towards moderate to play it safe. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with coastal regions hanging around 70.

Saturday (July 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy. moderate-to-heavy rainfall should continue through morning hours and possibly taper off by afternoon hours. To play it safe, allow the chance for rain to persist until early evening hours. Fingers crossed for earlier clear. When all is said and done, I expect statewide totals of at least 1-2 inches of rainfall. The heaviest axis of rainfall through SNJ could produce up to 5-6 inches. Please be careful! Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the NE with higher gusts along the coasts. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-50s.

Sunday (July 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny for NNJ/CNJ. SNJ could experience mist/light rain off the ocean for the first part of the day. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the NE with higher gusts along the coasts. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-50s.

An early look at next week indicates conditions more settled than the weekend as high pressure moves into the region. We might be dealing with a frontal passage Thursday into Friday but let’s revisit that on Sunday when I put the Monday-Friday Outlook out.

Note: Weather NJ is throwing a dinner party at the Long Beach Island Foundation of the Arts and Sciences. All you can eat fresh local food (seafood, land and veggies), all you can drink craft brew and fine wine, and live music from Sahara Moon. More event details and tickets can be purchased here. I hope to see you there! Be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™