Jan 27: Tuesday Snow Targets NWNJ

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 27, 2019 16:45

Jan 27: Tuesday Snow Targets NWNJ

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Discussion: An Arctic cold front will plow through our region Tuesday night which should then keep most of NJ below freezing, even during afternoon high temperatures, from Wednesday-Sunday. Along the cold frontal passage Tuesday PM exists the chance for rain to move in and change to snow. There is also energy rounding the trough that should slide up the Arctic front and enhance precipitation before the tropospheric polar vortex air mass fully settles across our region.

The best guess right now on timing is between Tuesday afternoon and the early AM hours of Wednesday with peak conditions realized Tuesday night. Precipitation could start as rain for many. NWNJ (N of 202/NW of I-287) have the best chance to see snowfall accumulations after the changeover. SENJ has the least chance for ending-accumulations as said area will see the temp crash last/closer to precip ending. Since temperatures will be crashing very fast through this precipitation and just-after, untreated wet roads will likely freeze if they cannot evaporate in-time. This could impact the Wednesday AM rush hour commute with icy conditions.  Once the system pulls away Wednesday we should stay bitterly cold until Sunday. Sunday should eventually warm-up above freezing for most but elevations could hold onto the cold through Tuesday.

In English: Expect settled but cold conditions tonight through Monday. Tuesday should start relatively mild as rainfall moves in by early-afternoon. Rainfall should then change to snow during Tuesday PM hours as an Arctic cold front moves through from NW to SE. NWNJ should be first to changeover and therefore has the best chance for snow accumulations. SENJ should be the last to changeover and therefore has the least chance for snow accumulations. Our above impact map illustrates our current thinking for now. Expect gusty winds with both the frontal passage and afterwards when the bitter cold air mass blows back in. Most of NJ should then stay below freezing from Wednesday through Sunday morning. NNJ elevations could possibly stay below freezing from Wednesday through next Tuesday. No other snow storms signals on the horizon and overall signals point towards a period of mild temperatures (relative to winter) from ~February 3 until ~February 10. The colder pattern is then expected to reload again. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great night and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 27, 2019 16:45