January Thaw Commences

Discussion: Some snow showers and flurries pushed across NNJ/CNJ today with little to no accumulation. This is the sayonara precipitation to the cold air for a short break as warm air pushes into the region for this week. We currently have some of the strongest -NAO blocking (ridge over Greenland) of the year. But with a large broad trough in the EPO region (a +EPO), it renders the -NAO useless. The +EPO allows milder Pacific air to round the bottom of the trough and push across the US from W coast to E coast. And that’s going to be the pattern setup this week until Saturday night…a mild “January thaw” that gradually builds Tues-Thurs and then peaks the warmest Friday-Saturday. Rain chances exist Tuesday, mainly for NNJ/CNJ, and are very scattered even isolated. A better chance of rain exists from Thursday night, through most of Friday and into Saturday leading up to the cold frontal passage. Once that front is through, it will render a much colder Sunday. This cold should then persist though the end of January and possibly well into February. When looking at this winter in whole, the milder Jan 6-11 period should seem a transient occurrence within a prolonged cold season.

The ENSO cycle is in the process of transitioning from a weak La Nina to neutral. We expect it to cross over to a weak El Nino by spring. IMO, this data is, overall, rather inconclusive to the current pattern since the current weak La Nina is weak, not strong…and the spring El Nino will be weak, not strong. A strong result in either direction is what usually inhibits snow and has a stronger effect on the pattern. A weak Nina or Nino is typically what you want as a snow lover. It’s not so much that a weak/near-neutral ENSO cycle produces or favors snow, it’s more about it not inhibiting snow like a strong Nino or Nina does…if that makes sense. Unfortunately, the MJO is just as inconclusive IMO as the parameters remain in the circle of death. The most prominent global teleconnection, that does make sense IMO, is the -EPO/+PNA that should set up after this January Thaw (by ~Jan 12). That’s going to allow cross-polar flow to resume and provide the cold air source necessary for snow to occur. Once we have the cold, then we will resume tracking wintry storm signals. From this range, there are some signals around Jan 14 and then 16-19 but we’re a bit far out for any level of confidence. I imaging we’ll be talking more about it as we near the end of the January thaw around the 10^th/11^th.

Forecast

Monday (Jan 5) high temperatures should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few snow flurries and snow showers moving through with little to no accumulation. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 25-35 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Jan 6) high temperatures should range from about 42-48 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most of NJ. Some light rain is possible across NNJ and maybe parts of northern CNJ. Just a small chance of a freezing rain situation for the highest NNJ elevations if rain falls early enough in the day – but will eventually warm above the threat. Most of NJ should expect plain rain for anything that does fall. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to the 35-45 range with NNJ possibly hanging onto some light rain.

Wednesday (Jan 7) high temperatures should range from about 45-52 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 28-35 range NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Jan 8) high temperatures should range from 45-55 from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A little cloudier for NNJ, a little sunnier for SNJ. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 32-42 NNJ to SNJ as periods of rain move in from the W.

Friday (Jan 9) high temperatures should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods or rain possible. Winds should be light to breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range with periods of rain likely continuing.

An early look at the weekend (Jan 10-11) indicates a warm and wet Saturday ahead of a Saturday night cold front that should return the entire region back to realistic winter temperatures for Sunday-forward. So Sunday the better day of the weekend but colder. The colder pattern then looks prolonged as we eye up the next winter signals in mid-January. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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