July 28: Sailor Take Warning

A low pressure system will track across the Mid-Atlantic US, through New Jersey and up into coastal New England late tonight into tomorrow. Most of New Jersey should see at least a quarter-to-half inch of rainfall however a thinner axis of higher amounts could occur just to the NW of the low’s center. The exact location-axis of this thinner strip of higher rainfall is yet TBD. It’s much like predicting the jackpot zone of a snow storm only in this case, it will be who sees an inch-plus of rain instead of a foot-plus of snow.

Either way, widespread synoptic rainfall is expected between late tonight and tomorrow afternoon with the bulk of it falling tomorrow morning. We sure as heck need it, especially in NNJ/CNJ. Thunderstorms are possible within the widespread rainfall along with flash flooding for areas that receive localized downpour periods. Coastal areas should get a bit rough but nothing you haven’t seen before. Run-of-mill synoptic winds: southerly ahead of the low, a possible period of onshore flow (if it tracks slightly SE-ward), followed by northerly behind the low once it lifts out of the region. Skies should dry out and clear from SW to NE starting with SWNJ around noon and ultimately clearing NENJ by late-afternoon/early-evening.

In English: Widespread rainfall, possibly heavy at times, is approaching. It should start late tonight for SWNJ (early tomorrow AM for NENJ) and end by early tomorrow afternoon for SWNJ (by late-afternoon/early-evening for NENJ). All NJ areas between SWNJ and NENJ are somewhere in the middle of that expected timing. Flash flooding is possible for areas that see localized banding of heavier rainfall. Embedded thunderstorms are possible within.

For the above reasons, all marine traffic should be on alert for rough seas, hence the sailor take warning shot I took of Atlantic City last year. Speaking of AC, I’ll be covering for Dan Skeldon at the Press of Atlantic City this weekend so look for me in the paper. I’ll have the detailed weekend outlook posted this evening. Stay dry and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™