Light at the End of the Tunnel

Discussion: Another week where the upper-jet will be S of NJ with NJ mostly under below-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies. This means colder than average and very unsettled. With such a condensed troposphere, moisture doesn’t have to rise as high to condense and fall as rain with storms. With such a high sun angle now, it doesn’t take much diurnal heating to spark a boomer. I feel like quite a few areas will see hail this week from the setup. We’re now to the point where average NJ temperatures should be in the lower-70s. So 5 days of 50s is going to be rough for those looking to the warmer spring feel. Some light at the end of the tunnel exists this weekend with Saturday and Sunday likely pushing into the 70s with sunshine. And that pattern should hold as the stubborn high block in Canada lets the lower heights leave the E US. Finally, a prolonged and sustained warmer flow out of the SW or W/SW starting this Saturday, May 6. It took some time to decipher when the colder pattern should break. May 6 is now gaining confidence for that. As far as rain goes, almost any day this week can feature showers and/or thunderstorms. Tuesday looks like the most unsettled but Mon-Fri should all have the common theme of clouds, rain, and storms possible. If we can just make it through Friday, conditions should significantly improve for the weekend.

Monday (May 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds during the day with increasing cloud coverage heading into the evening. Can’t rule out a passing afternoon/evening shower or pop-up thunderstorm before steadier rainfall sets up overnight. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from elevations to coasts.  

Tuesday (May 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s away from the ocean and mid-to-upper 50s along the ocean. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (May 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to upper-40s from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (May 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with passing showers possible. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ areas.

Friday (May 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s. Maybe a few spots break 60. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. More passing showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ areas.

An early look at the weekend indicates much better conditions for the time of year. I’m seeing clear skies with temperatures back into the upper-60s and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Much more average-feeling than the immediate Mon-Fri. And the 70s pattern should hold from that point and beyond. Just hang in there Jersey for about 5 more days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™