Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of September 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But general temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of reasonable expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast. You’ll never see me commit to specific surface conditions outside of the 7-day forecasting period.

The following diagram is calculated using WeatherTrends360 proprietary algorithms for New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens (away from the ocean), for example, will verify slightly colder than illustrated due to elevation and soil heat exchange. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to N Delaware/Philly/Trenton – I-95 corridor into NENJ) slightly warmer than illustrated due to urban heat island effect and several other influencing factors. All areas of NJ however would have similar graph trends and sky conditions. It’s best to let the following graph paint an overall picture (trends) instead of focusing on the low-level specific condition details.

Discussion: You can see the big dip in temperature for Labor Day Weekend which is associated with a front moving through and high pressure establishing itself over the E US in a zonal upper level pattern. Then the high moves out and things warm up for Labor Day through about Thursday, Sept 10. Another high should push a cooler air mass in for that weekend (Sept 11-13). After that a steady decline in high and low temperatures are expected. We start Sept with highs in the 80s/lows in the 60s. We end Sept with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s (all in general). Just keep in mind that NNJ/NWNJ elevations tend to drop cooler than expected, especially overnight. And also that immediate coastal regions of SWNJ/SENJ/ECNJ tend to hang warmer overnight from the still-warm ocean marine influence.

We’ve had quite the start to the 2020 hurricane season. August was very active and NJ saw remnants from three tropical systems. Sept is starting off with a quieter look but this is now peak hurricane season and things should heat up again soon. You know I’ll be looking out for anything that threatens NJ.

In English: If a tropical threat or severe weather outbreak arise, we’ll have to deal with that in a shorter-term forecast. But overall, the month of September looks fairly normal temperature-wise, perhaps slightly above-average. A steady decline in temperatures throughout the month as summer now begins to wrap up. This is typically when NJ tends to drought without larger rain systems. If none occur then we’ll likely be below-average for precipitation. I’ll be watching the tropics. Have a great September and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™