Major Nor’easter Snowstorm a GO for New Jersey this Sun-Mon

Discussion: Today we’re going to narrow the range of possible snowstorm outcomes to a first call forecast. There’s still some disagreement in snowfall amounts and timing due to disagreement in the upper levels meaning suboptimal confidence. Especially with a phase involved and an inverted trough that’s been ghosting in and out. But this is our best foot forward for this weekend’s nor’easter snowstorm in New Jersey.

Synoptic Storm Summary

We’re gaining confidence that a ridge will set up in the W US with an axis somewhere between Idaho and Montana longitude. This W US ridge location, amplification and axis will have downstream implications on the location, amplification and axis of the storm trough. The latest trend has been to take the storm trough negative due to an earlier phase of overall storm energy (the polar and Pacific vorts/waves). The upper low (forms after the phase) has been closing off further westward than prior data. It translates to the surface with a coastal surface low passing closer to the OBX coast, turning slightly northward and likely with a stall/small retrograde…allowing it to deepen closer to the coast rather than farther out to sea. It ultimately holds a precipitation shield over New Jersey with all layers cold enough to snow between Sunday and Monday. There’s cooling from the upper-low mixed in adiabatically and ocean temps are at their annual coldest (~35-36F).  This correlates with the overnight trend of an axis shifting closer to Idaho rather than Montana. And that axis shift is created by the stronger E Pacific trough just upstream (to the W of). So basically, Idaho ridge axis = the bigger nor’easter snowstorm in New Jersey and Montana ridge axis = a SENJ graze/hit with lesser amounts for the rest of NJ. And that’s sort of where we’re at right now…a statewide major snowstorm or a SENJ snowstorm only. The latest trend, however, is towards the Idaho ridge axis and that is the latest and greatest information we can factor into this current first-stab forecast. For this reason, our forecast is between the GFS and the rest of the models but leaning closer to the GFS given that every 12z model trended W as well.

Let’s talk Winds

Since this is a nor’easter snowstorm in New Jersey, we’re going to have some tight pressure gradients just offshore producing high winds. The closer the coastal surface low tucks NW towards New Jersey, the better chance there is for meeting blizzard criteria which is blowing snow, visibility reduction below a quarter-mile, and winds of 35mph or greater for a period of 3 hours. If a 985mb or stronger tucks into NJ, then gusts greater than 50mph are likely, possibly 60mph. If the low is a little farther offshore then gusts would be more in the 40-45mph range.

Power Outages

Due to the above-described wind potential, I would expect power outages. Now is the time to make sure your flashlights have batteries, candles are easily accessible, generators have gas, etc. It’s possible winds could be high enough to down tree limbs and power lines, especially if they become coated with a wetter snow ratio snow. Since this is a nor’easter snowstorm in New Jersey, the snow ratios will be closer to 10:1 to 12:1 which can weigh down tree limbs and power lines making them more susceptible to wind damage.

Coastal Flooding

There will be strong winds rocking from SE to E to NE to N as the coastal surface low runs a button hook off OBX Sunday into Monday. This creates a wind-driven storms surge concern that could produce at least moderate stage coastal flooding. There will be three high tides of concern: ~Noon Sunday, ~Midnight, and then ~Noon Monday for the nor’easter snowstorm in New Jersey this Sunday-Monday.

Snow Accumulation Map and Timing

The following is our first call snow map. As of right now, our timing is between noon Sunday and noon Monday. We expect snow to first break out between 6am and 10am Sunday morning in SNJ, spread into the rest of NJ by 3pm, snow hard 3pm to 8am, and then taper off around noon Monday. We expect the windy coastal component to crank hardest Sunday night into Monday morning during the peak of the nor’easter snowstorm in New Jersey.

In English: Chances for a snowstorm Sunday into Monday continue to increase. The range of possibilities now seems like anything from a statewide KABOOM+ to only a ECNJ/SENJ KABOOM with the rest of NJ still seeing plowable/significant snowfall. Our map above represents the latest models today trending towards the original and persistent GFS solution (now 12 runs in a row). It’s our middle-of-the-road approach that leans heavy GFS. We expect light snow to first break out between 6am and 10am Sunday morning in SNJ, spread into the rest of NJ by 3pm while becoming moderate, snow heavy 3pm Sunday to 8am Monday, and then taper off around noon Monday or just after. There will be another YouTube video tonight. Be safe! JC

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