May 2019 Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of May 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

The following diagram is calculated for the meat and potatoes of New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations and immediate coastal areas, for example, will likely verify slightly cooler than illustrated due to elevation and marine flow influence. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to Philly/Trenton) slightly warmer than illustrated. But for most of New Jersey this diagram should suffice for the general idea of temperature and precipitation trend analysis.

Discussion: May looks seasonably-average with regards to temperatures. Lots of highs in the 70s overall with a few days here and there capped in the mid-to-upper 60s. Also a few days into the 80s. Pretty run-of-mill. May looks wet however with above-average precipitation and thunderstorm activity. The upper-level jet has been wobbling (with low amplitude) over NJ and that has kept the highway of storms coming in from the W/SW. This pattern driver looks to persist at least another 1-2 weeks. Remember the ocean is still cold (low-50s now…mid-to-upper 50s by end of May). So anytime an easterly wind component is in play expect air temperatures in the 50s for at least the coastal regions (ENJ/SENJ). Even a due S wind will chill the immediate coast down as SENJ runs from S/SW to N/NE…N of the ocean. You need winds out of the SW<->W/NW to usher in the warmer temperatures even to the coast. Areas near Philly/Trenton have the best chance to break 80 on those milder days while the NNJ elevations verify slightly cooler. Thunderstorm action will ramp up along frontal activity not so much between (outside of warm-sector air mass storms). The rainy and stormy pattern should eventually break but it might not be until around the 20th of the month. In the meantime expect vegetative growth (especially lawns) to grow like Gizmo tossed into a pool while eating after midnight.

In English: May 2019 looks to feature near-average temperatures with above average precipitation and thunderstorm activity.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™