Mild Conditions Build

Jonathan Carr
By April 11, 2022 15:24

Mild Conditions Build

Discussion: The upper-level trough/low have departed and we’ll now be ridged-in until early Friday morning. This means a more expansive lower troposphere and generally milder conditions. Today felt great after recent times but the really good stuff starts tomorrow. While there could be isolated instability-driven showers at any time, the next 3-4 days looks mostly amazing. Highs in the 70s, even flirting with low-80s with open-em-up windows (if you got em) nights. It looks like it comes to a head on Thursday with NJ in the immediate warm sector and an approaching cold front from the W. Thursday should therefore be the warmest day and end with possible showers and thunderstorms. I’ll report more later this week once storm intensity becomes more confident. Once the cold front is through (by Thursday night/Friday morning) that should leave Friday and Saturday pleasant (highs in the 60s) and then a cooler Sunday (highs in the 50s). Next week then looks like more below-average temperatures. Just remember, avg for next week is low-60s. So even 5 degrees below average (which shows up as a dark blue on temp anomaly maps) is not a cold day. 55-60 actually feels alright for April under sun. So I would say April will likely end cool but not cold. It might be one of those years where we go from highs in the 50s to highs in the 80s with very little highs in the 60s/70s. for that reason, please enjoy the next 3-4 days (up until Thurs PM storm time).

Monday (April 11) high temperatures reached into the lower-60s for some interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Otherwise most have peaked in the 50s today. Expect winds to remain out of the W/SW overnight as temps fall into the upper-40s. Cloud cover should thicken overnight as well.

Tuesday (April 12) high temperatures should reach/break 70 for many areas. Skies could start cloudy with isolated showers in the morning but conditions should improve during the day with plenty of sun. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from N to S.

Wednesday (April 13) high temperatures should reach into the 70s again, maybe take a run at 80 for traditional warmer spots (interior CNJ/SNJ). Marine influence could hold the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts in the 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SE, perhaps breezy along the immediate SENJ coast. Overnight lows should hover around 60 overnight.

Thursday (April 14) high temperatures should reach/break 80 for many locations. Again, marine influence could keep the ECNJ/SNJ coasts cooler (upper-60s), but most locations should see 70s for a third day in a row. Skies should transition from sunny to mixed by afternoon as PM showers and thunderstorms are likely. I’ll likely be discussing Thursday PM thunderstorms this week as we approach. Otherwise, winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW and overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most.

Friday (April 15) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. Skies should transition from cloudy to sunny with a pleasant feel. Cooler than Thursday but still nice, especially in the sun. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, perhaps breezy along immediate coasts. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates another pleasant day in the 60s on Saturday (like Friday) followed by a cooler Sunday (highs in the 50s). Beyond this weekend, April looks to finish with below-average temperatures but let’s take every 7 days at a time. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By April 11, 2022 15:24