Mild Conditions Continue

Jonathan Carr
By December 12, 2021 21:35

Mild Conditions Continue

Discussion: It’s not exactly go to the beach weather but temperatures are indeed running above average. Since it’s December, that’s still kind of cold but nowhere near what’s needed to support snow. High pressure under a developing, highly anomalous upper-level ridge, should keep NJ dry for most of this week. Thursday night there’s a cold front but currently looks mostly dry. The whole week looks mild but Wednesday and Thursday could really spike while in the warm sector. Friday we should get knocked back to just chilly cold, not cold cold. On Saturday it looks like a warm front could advance through the area. This could bring snow to our NW but likely just rain for NJ. Current data indicates that clearing out for a nicer Sunday before conditions become unsettled again for Monday (currently monitoring). That’s about as far as I am comfortable looking with any level of detail. As far as general high-level patterns go, it looks like we’ll at least start to return to a colder pattern after that Monday system pushes through to start winter. NAO and AO tellies will be going negative indicating blocking over Greenland and a looser polar vortex. The PNA will remain negative however which indicates lacking ridging in the W US. So, it’s not a perfect setup but it’s known to produce snow in the form of overrunning events. The MJO is suggesting a propagation through phase 7 and into 8 between ~Dec 21 and early January. This would suggest a favorable pattern for winter storm development between Christmas and early January. It at least makes meteorological sense from this range. Whether or not it plays out this way is another story. That’s why I only take every 7 days seriously at a time. .

Monday (Dec 13) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40s from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (Dec 14) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Dec 15) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 from NW to SE. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should start light out of the E (off the ocean) and end out of the S/SW by sunset. Overnight lows should settle in the 40s for most areas.

Thursday (Dec 16) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas, maybe mid-60s away from the ocean. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from elevations to coasts. A small chance of showers exists into Friday morning.  

Friday (Dec 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds after any early-AM showers clear. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions for Saturday and then again on Monday. Sunday looks currently looks like the drier day. No wintry systems showing for the next 7-day forecasting period. Some longer-range signs suggest a return to a colder pattern just in time for the first day of winter. Enjoy the mild weather to close out fall. It should help with heating costs and allow ideal holiday decorating conditions outside. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By December 12, 2021 21:35