Mild Conditions (Nov 20-22)

Discussion: A zonal upper jet and positive geopotential height anomalies should dominate the weekend. At the surface that means mild temperatures without disturbance. Friday and Saturday looks the mildest as flow starts out of the S/SW and rocks to W/NW. Sunday should be cloudier and cooler (but not cold) as onshore flow associated with high pressure to our N throws some ocean mass inland. This should lead to a rainy disturbance late Sunday night into Monday. Tuesday through Wednesday morning looks ok with more high pressure around. Thursday-Friday could feature another disturbance that should ultimately usher colder conditions back in by Sunday.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas, maybe even mid-60s for the traditionally warmer parts of interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a mild feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 from elevations to sea.

Saturday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach near-60 again. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near freezing to mid-40s from elevations to sea.  

Sunday (Nov 22) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to upper-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a cooler feel than Friday and Saturday. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea as periods of rain likely move in either late Sunday PM or early Monday AM.

An early look at next week indicates near to slightly above average temperatures. Looks like Sunday night into Monday morning and then Thursday into Friday are the next rainy periods. I’m still seeing another cold snap moving in during Thanksgiving weekend. After that, NJ is fair game for snow tracking season to begin. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™