Mild Conditions to Build in New Jersey

Jonathan Carr
By March 13, 2022 22:47

Mild Conditions to Build in New Jersey

Discussion: Much of our next two weeks should occur under a zonal upper-level flow with positive height anomalies. High pressure should set up near Bermuda and pump SW flow into NJ Monday-Wednesday. That should take most into the 60s maybe some closer to 70 (we’ll see) with mixed but dry skies. On Thursday, a weak and warm coastal should take a pass off the SENJ coast. Not expecting much from it other than outer fringe light rain bands and light-to-moderate E/NE winds off the ocean. It should approach late-Wednesday night and hang around for most of Thursday. That system should then clear out and put NJ in the warm sector of an approaching cold front on Friday. For this reason, Friday looks like the warmest day of the week. It then looks like the cold front could bring some rain with it late Friday night into Saturday morning. The rest of the weekend would then be cooler with W/NW flow but not necessarily cold. Most areas should still get into the 50s/60s during the day. The upper levels are then expected to rebuild the higher heights profile quickly with more warmth for next week. The ocean is still in the mid-40s so any onshore flow should create a wild temp gradient between ECNJ/SENJ and interior NJ. Keep an eye out for the first mesoscale sea breezes that put places like LBI/AC in the 40s/50s while areas like Philly/Trenton bake in the 70s. I like to call these the beach picnic spoilers. Basically until mid-to-late June (when ocean temps climb to upper-60s), onshore flow/sea breeze/etc. could ruin that picnic with a blast of natural AC.  

As far as wintry weather goes, it’s never wise to say “no more snow” until you are into April. There’s always lake effect snow showers and squalls that can come through NJ with colder NW flow. There’s always the chance for a perfectly positioned nor’easter to pop up in the 5-day window and dump snow overnight—escaping the daytime rising sun angle/climatology/etc. So, I won’t say no more snow just yet. But I will say that the next 2 weeks look mild with a very unfavorable pattern for snow. The only transient colder signal I am seeing is the March 26-27 timeframe and currently it doesn’t look cold enough to support accumulating snow. After that snow chances will continue to drop considerably. There’s currently one out in the bottom of the 9th. If nothing happens March 26-27 then we’ll have two outs. The first two weeks of April will be the last out of the winter ballgame.

Monday (March 14) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to lower-60s N to S. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for a relatively milder feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s N to S.

Tuesday (March 15) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most. Coastal areas could hang closer to 60. Can’t take a run at 70 off the table for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s N to S.

Wednesday (March 16) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most with 70 possible again, likely away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Coastal areas maybe upper-50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with increasing cloud coverage into PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW but coastal areas could see a sea breeze out of the E hance the reason for staying cooler. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from N to S with periods of rain possible.

Thursday (March 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most areas. Coastal areas will likely hang cooler from onshore flow off the cold Atlantic. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks. Maybe some light rain SE of 95 closer to the coast. Winds should be breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-40s for most areas.

Friday (March 18) high temperatures should break into the 70s for most areas. You might even see interior CNJ/SNJ flirt with 80. No promises but small possibility. Coastal areas should again hang cooler. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most areas with periods of rainfall possible.

An early look at the weekend indicates cooler conditions and possibly a little unsettled Saturday morning. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By March 13, 2022 22:47