Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 4, 2020 23:11

Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Discussion: A weak and transient ridge should build over the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US between Monday and Wednesday. This should produce milder temperatures at the surface with light SW winds. A cold front is then expected to pass through later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This should knock temperatures and humidity back down for Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday appear milder as high pressure offshore produces return flow. The wildcard for this weekend is the remnants of yet another tropical system.

Tropical cyclone twenty-six has become Delta this morning and is currently located just S of Jamaica. It is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, become another hurricane, and make landfall somewhere in the central norther gulf coast Friday PM. From there the remnants should quickly dissipate over land and do one of two things. The remnants could follow the high pressure return flow and move over NJ this weekend as periods of rainfall. Or the remnants could hang back in the eastern central US and push through with a cold front after this weekend. We’ll have to watch and see how the upper-level steering pattern evolves as Delta approaches the northern central gulf coast.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Oct 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should start mostly cloudy with a few showers around and then improve during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with just a few clouds around. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. You might see interior CNJ/SNJ flirt with 80. NNJ has a better chance to see cloud cover and showers later in the evening. SNJ has a better chance to see more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW until the front moves through. The winds should pick up for PM hours out of the NW and persist overnight. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea.

Thursday (Oct 8) high temperatures should fail to escape the 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should subside out of the NW by late-morning/early-afternoon. Overnight lows should range from 30s to 40s from elevations to sea.

Friday (Oct 9) high temperatures should fail to escape the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 40s to 50s from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates warmer temperatures but uncertain conditions as remnants of Delta likely track across the SE US and possibly into our area. Would likely just be periods of rain. Models are split but I’ll be tracking from here in. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 4, 2020 23:11