Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 12, 2020 14:02

Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)

Discussion: We are through with the freakishly warm January conditions after today. Anomalously high ridging will continue over the E US this week but fade. That means that Mondy through Thursday daytime hours will still be above-average in temperature but not like the past few days. We’re talking 40s and low-mid 50s not mid-60s. On Thursday evening the upper-level flow of the ridge will become NW. This will bring a solid cold shot to NJ at the surface as indicated by the overnight temps for Thursday below. Expect a big drop in temperatures through sunset of Thursday. I’m then tracking a winter storm signal for the weekend. From the hip right now it could arrive as over-running snow between late-Friday night and Saturday morning. It could possibly thump pretty good Saturday AM before changing to/ending as rain later Saturday. As of now it looks like a decent amount of wintry surface damage could be done prior to the changeover especially along and NW of I-95. NWNJ would be most favored to remain all snow or see the smallest amount of ending rain. SENJ would be most favored to change over to rain the quickest. The primary surface low could track into the Great Lakes before transferring to a coastal low off New England. If that primary tracks closer to NJ and/or the coastal develops at a lower latitude then our snow chances would increase even further. I’ll be tracking this system aggressively this week and will report accordingly. We should then see a solid cold shot Sunday with colder conditions lasting into the foreseeable future. The pattern looks active as well with several storm signals prior to January’s end. Polar and Pacific teleconnective oscillations appear much more favorable for cold and snow events after whatever this weekend does. Basically winter is about to get going after the mild stretch we’ve been in. Let’s call it Thursday night (Jan 16) and forward.

Monday (Jan 13) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Jan 14) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few passing showers possible here and there. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Jan 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Jan 16) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s statewide possibly colder for NNJ elevations.

Friday (Jan 17) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s statewide. Skies should start partly sunny and increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s as snow likely approaches by Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend indicates a winter storm signal for Saturday (see above discussion) followed by an active sustained period of cold for the foreseeable future.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 12, 2020 14:02