Mild Week Leads to Colder Weekend

Discussion: The well-above average temperatures should continue this week as warm air continues to pump into the W US off the extremely zonal Pacific jet. This has been warming the entire US and inhibiting Arctic air from spilling down into the lower-48. A side effect has been incredible snow for the W US elevations from the orographic influence on the incoming Pacific jet. Starting around Jan 5-6, the Pacific jet is expected to split/kink up into more of a meridional pattern for the lower-48. We’ll first see a transient trough this weekend which will return us back to 1-2 degrees above average rather than 10-20. Then even colder air moves in for next week. We’re then looking at a more typical temperature profile for the second half of January which should mean the return of wintry event potential.

For this week, a warm front will pass through tonight (Tuesday night) and will set up the warmest day (Wednesday) of the mild wave…the warm sector. Sounds like a recipe for a foggy Wednesday morning IMO. A band of precip, maybe with isolated boomers, should then push through Wednesday evening with a delayed cold front coming through on Thursday. Friday will have a colder feel as some light precipitation moves through…likely rain for most but maybe snow for elevations of NWNJ. Friday night should then return to colder temperatures closer to average. Saturday is the signal I’ve been monitoring and mentioning but it looks weak in terms of a snowstorm. It now looks like more of a wave that could still drop light snow but with lackluster accumulations. This event is more significant to the pattern change with the colder air moving in behind it and staying around. There’s another marginal signal ~Tues Jan 10 and then another stronger coastal signal the weekend of Jan 13-15.  I’ll be watching them all and will report accordingly. For now, enjoy the warmth and the energy savings it has brought until about Friday night. Tomorrow (Wednesday) should be the warmest day of it then this nonsense ends for the weekend. Some long-range indicators suggest a more active wintry pattern starting with whatever happens the weekend of Jan 13-15.

Tuesday (Jan 3) high temperatures are maxing in the 45-50 range for NNJ and lower-60s for SNJ. The immediate coasts are colder in the upper-40s. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. Some rain has pushed through already today (heavier for NNJ) but most action should taper for the rest of the evening outside of a few spotty remaining showers. Winds should pick up overnight out of the S/SW.

Wednesday ( Jan 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed until an expected early evening band of rain, possibly with embedded thunderstorms. There might be some fog around in the morning so please use caution. Winds should be light to breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most areas.

Thursday (Jan 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few showers around. Winds should become light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to near-40 for most areas.

Friday (Jan 6) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for most areas. Skies should start mostly cloudy but improve from afternoon-forward. Spotty rain is possible during AM hours (maybe some snow mixing in for elevations) before conditions improve. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to near freezing for most areas. First time back to near freezing for most areas since the warmup began.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder temperatures but still not where they should be. Slightly above average (which is still cold this time of year). Highs in the lower-40s. Lows in the 20s type stuff. Saturday (Jan 7) looks a little unsettled meaning possible showers—snow showers if late enough Saturday evening after sunset when temps dip—but likely a low accumulation event at most. Sunday looks dry from late-morning and forward. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™