Mild Wet Start Cold Dry Finish (Dec 28-30)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 28, 2018 11:26

Mild Wet Start Cold Dry Finish (Dec 28-30)

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Discussion: Above-average upper-level geopotential height anomalies will continue to dominate the pattern today (Friday) and most of Saturday. Heights should relax into a transient zonal pattern for Sunday before rebuilding to start next week. This means mild and wet today (Friday), cooling down tomorrow (Saturday), cold for Sunday followed by a mild and wet start to next week. The next shot of lower geo height anomalies is looking like ~January 3-4. This looks to usher in much colder weather afterwards. Therefore if a surface low can pop and ride up the coast in that Jan 3-4 period we might be looking at a winter storm threat for next Friday. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves but this period has been well-identified for a while now given the stratospheric warming and downward propagating tropospheric implications. But for all asking “when’s it going to snow?” …next Friday should be your focus. By Monday there should be a much better consensus on what’s going to happen. Until then it’s another classic El Nino winter with alternating periods of mild/wet and cold/dry.

Friday (Dec 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most (some spots reaching 60). Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rainfall, heavy at times, should begin tapering off towards late-afternoon/early-evening and clear out completely by midnight. Winds should be breezy/gusty out of the S especially along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most.

Saturday (Dec 29) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Dec 30) high temperatures should reach the upper-30s/lower-40s for most. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates more mild and wet weather to start the week followed by near-average temperatures and dry conditions through at least next Thursday. I’m watching next weekend (Friday Jan 3-forward) for the possible start of a favorable winter storm development period. We could be looking at a winter storm next Friday. The only snow possible until then would be in the form of lake-effect flurries/squalls this Sunday if the winds line up just right over the Great Lakes. In that case NWNJ would be favored but I wouldn’t hold your breath for it.  I hope you are enjoying the new Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and Android. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 28, 2018 11:26