Milder Setup on the Way

Jonathan Carr
By February 28, 2022 22:30

Milder Setup on the Way

Discussion: A few weak N stream waves will track to our N this week with precipitation dissolving pretty much overhead. I suppose anything from flurries to snow showers are possible before it vanishes completely but it would need to fall overnight. Even so, it would struggle to stick due to a marginal surface environment. Any precipitation during the day would likely be rain due to highs in the 40s and 50s. Whether overnight and cold enough or during the day and warmer, the precp looks very light and will likely just taper off to nothing. The first chance of this would be Tuesday night into Wednesday and the second would be Thursday into Thursday night.

Otherwise, this week should feature milder daytime highs (40s and 50s) and colder overnight lows (just below freezing). Once the Thursday low track through to our N, it will pull down cold behind it, reinforced by approaching high pressure. In the upper-levels, it’s a shallow progressive trough. Cold but not bitter. That will keep Thursday night through Friday and into Saturday morning on the colder side. With that said, Friday looks like the coldest day of the week and Friday night into Saturday morning should be the coldest point of the week (if not Thursday night into Friday morning).

At some point Saturday morning, high pressure will push offshore and start feeding warmer return flow into NJ from the S/SW. This mechanism will pump a developing E US ridge that should produce mild temperatures through the weekend and into next week. For this time of year mild means afternoon highs ranging from upper-50s to near-70, from NNJ to SNJ, and overnight lows in the 40s. A cold front should then push through by next Wednesday with rain and possibly thunderstorms.

It’s the 9th inning of winter and Mariano Rivera is closing. The pattern looks unfavorable for winter storm development. The sun angle is increasing daily and general climatology is weighing in. In order for snow accumulations to happen at this point, it has to puke snow (30dbz+) during the day or occur overnight. Snow showers with the surface in the 40s isn’t going to cut it. It has certainly happened in the past but it looks unlikely in the next 7 days. There’s some long-range noise next Tuesday but we all know not to bite on anything this early.

In English: Not much going on this week. Near/slightly above average into Thursday with nuisance precipitation possible Tuesday night and Thursday. Thursday night, through Friday, and into Saturday morning looks colder but then we should rebound even milder for Saturday through at least next Monday. This weekend looks downright mild but the jury is still out on cloud coverage and shower chances. At this point Saturday looks like the driest/clearest. Not seeing disruptive weather in the next 7 days…just a gradual crawl towards spring. Only a few weeks left after that. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By February 28, 2022 22:30