Mixed and Unsettled Conditions

Discussion: Let’s get the rant out of the way first. I, like many of you, are frustrated with the great sunny mid-week days and chillier rainy weekends. I realize not everyone else works M-F (some work weekends and even 7 days a week). For that I apologize if the rant offends in any way. On the other hand, if your days off are early/mid-week then congratulations on crushing it! Next weekend seems like more of the same and I hope we break out of that timing pattern soon. </rant>

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has adjusted their thunderstorm expectations to the S of NJ for today (Thursday). While isolated thunderstorms are still a low probability, the main form of conditions between this evening/overnight, through Friday, and into Saturday early AM will be nuisance rainfall. Two different zonal streams (across W/C US) of the upper jet (observed at 250mb) will continue to couple in the E US either over NJ or just to the W of NJ. While this is happening, NJ should stay under a prolonged duration of lower geopotential height anomalies (observed at 500mb). This translates down to the lower levels (850mb to SFC) as unsettled conditions meaning clouds and rain. The specific timing targets I currently see for rain are this evening through most of Friday—ending by early Saturday morning, late Saturday night through Sunday, and then again mid-next-week. With that said, this Saturday should see a break between early AM hours and late-PM hours (all if not most daytime hours). During these Saturday hours, we should see a mix of sun and clouds. Unfortunately, that period is sandwiched between a rainy start and end to the weekend. Can’t rule out isolated thunderstorms within any of the rain periods. But most of this looks like nuisance conditions, not hazardous. Not seeing any flash flooding events from excessive rainfall nor concerns for high winds. Perhaps a 1-2 inches total for the next week or so. Winds ranging from “light rain breeze” to light-to-moderate gusts at times. Coastal regions might deal with minor flooding along tidal bodies of water via the extended duration of onshore (E/NE) flow tonight through Friday PM (when winds transition from E/NE to NE).

Thursday (Today – May 9) high temperatures should max in the upper-60s/lower-70s ballpark over the next hour or two. Skies should continue to fill in with clouds with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening. Winds should remain light out of the E/NE, perhaps slightly breezier along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations as rain chances persist into Friday. Minor coastal flooding is possible along tidal water coasts.

Friday (May 10) high temperatures should hold in the 50s for all NJ locations. Skies should be cloudy, rainy, and raw. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ locations as rain chances continue but break apart Saturday morning.

Saturday (May 11) high temperatures should reach a little higher than Friday. Likely low-to-mid 60s away from the ocean and 50s along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Rain could linger after midnight into early Saturday AM hours but should significantly reduce by sunrise. The rest of Saturday should then improve (sun and clouds) for daytime into evening hours. Jury is still out on how much sun will poke through. Winds should become light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 40s as isolated rain showers return into Sunday.

Sunday (May 12) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more chances for showers. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates a return to the milder/warmer temperatures and drier conditions (outside of ~Wednesday) followed by an unsettled weekend. I know, what a surprise, right? Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™